Marvell Tech Gains 4.58% as Technical Indicators Fuel 11.47% Rally

Marvell Technology (MRVL) has experienced a 4.58% surge in its most recent trading session, extending its winning streak to five consecutive days with a cumulative gain of 11.47%. This upward momentum is supported by a narrowing range of volatility and a clear breakout above key psychological levels, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action forms a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicative of a strong uptrend. A notable bullish pattern is the Bullish Engulfing formation observed on 2025-09-17, where the body of the candle completely engulfs the preceding bearish candle. This pattern, combined with the price holding above the 70.98 support level (a former resistance), suggests a high probability of further gains. Key resistance lies at 75.45 (a prior peak on 2025-09-03), while critical support is identified at 66.14 (a trough on 2025-09-12).

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately 70.50) is currently below the 200-day moving average (~72.00), forming a Golden Cross as the short-term MA begins to cross above the long-term MA. This alignment reinforces the bullish bias. The 100-day MA (~71.20) acts as a dynamic support, with the price consistently trading above it since early September. However, a divergence emerges if the 200-day MA fails to keep pace, which could signal a potential slowdown in momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (12, 26, 9) shows a positive crossover above the signal line, with the histogram expanding, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator (%K at 82.5, %D at 78.3) suggests overbought conditions, but the lack of divergence between %K and price action (both rising) implies the trend may persist. A bearish reversal is more likely if %K drops below %D while the price remains above 74.23.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands stretching to 74.23 (upper band) and 68.36 (lower band). The price is currently near the upper band, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the sustained volume surge (28.9 million shares) on the most recent close may delay a reversion to the mean. A break below the 70.98 support could trigger a contraction of the bands, signaling a period of consolidation.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has spiked to a 12-month high on the most recent bullish sessions, validating the strength of the rally. The volume-to-price correlation is robust, as increasing volume accompanies higher closes. However, a warning sign would be a divergence where volume declines despite continued price gains, which could indicate waning demand.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (14) stands at 71.2, hovering near overbought territory. While this typically signals a potential correction, the absence of a bearish divergence (price highs above previous highs, RSI highs below previous highs) suggests the uptrend may persist. A drop below 60 would confirm a shift in momentum, but the current RSI level is consistent with the MACD’s bullish signal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the 2025-06-24 low (59.27) to the 2025-08-28 high (77.23) identifies key levels. The 38.2% retracement (66.30) has already been surpassed, with the 50% level (68.25) acting as a psychological support. A break above the 78.6% retracement (73.70) would target the 88.6% level (~75.45), aligning with the prior resistance identified in the candlestick analysis.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described strategy of buying when RSI exceeds 70 and selling when it drops below 70 has historically outperformed the market by capturing overbought conditions and trend reversals. Applying this to Marvell’s current context, the RSI nearing 71 would trigger a buy signal, aligning with the bullish MACD and Fibonacci targets. However, this approach assumes a continuation of the current trend and may fail if the RSI forms a bearish divergence before dropping below 70. The recent volume surge adds confidence in the strategy’s short-term viability, though it remains sensitive to sudden volatility shifts.