Marvell Q1 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on Custom Silicon, AWS Ramp, and Investor Confidence

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) will report first-quarter earnings after the close on Thursday, May 29, amid growing investor uncertainty about the company’s trajectory in the AI semiconductor space. Although the Q1 consensus remains upbeat on a year-over-year basis, recent events have cast a shadow over sentiment. The company’s surprise decision to cancel its June Investor Day, citing a “dynamic macroeconomic environment,” sparked concerns that management lacks near-term visibility or that key customer relationships—particularly Amazon and Microsoft—may be shifting. After a mixed Q4 marked by solid results but tepid guidance, investor confidence is fragile. Heading into Q1, the focus is firmly on Marvell’s custom silicon business, the data center segment, and whether it can reassure the Street that it's still a core AI infrastructure player.

Watch: CFRA's Angelo Zino discusses the big tech earnings this week.Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) will report first-quarter earnings after the close on Thursday, May 29, amid growing investor uncertainty about the company’s trajectory in the AI semiconductor space. Although the Q1 consensus remains upbeat on a year-over-year basis, recent events have cast a shadow over sentiment. The company’s surprise decision to cancel its June Investor Day, citing a “dynamic macroeconomic environment,” sparked concerns that management lacks near-term visibility or that key customer relationships—particularly Amazon and Microsoft—may be shifting. After a mixed Q4 marked by solid results but tepid guidance, investor confidence is fragile. Heading into Q1, the focus is firmly on Marvell’s custom silicon business, the data center segment, and whether it can reassure the Street that it's still a core AI infrastructure player.

Watch: CFRA's Angelo Zino discusses the big tech earnings this week.

Wall Street is expecting EPS of $0.61, up 154% year-over-year, on revenue of $1.88 billion, a 62% gain. Marvell itself guided to revenue of $1.875 billion, plus or minus 2%, with adjusted gross margin expected around 60%. That narrowed guidance range was viewed by some as conservative, especially in contrast to more upbeat peers such as Nvidia. The cancellation of Investor Day only heightened concerns that the visibility into key growth segments—especially AI and custom silicon—may be murky at best.

A central issue heading into earnings is the state of Marvell’s custom XPU partnership with Amazon Web Services. Management has previously emphasized multi-generational wins at AWS, with revenue growth expected through FY26 and FY27. However, industry chatter suggests Marvell may have lost the next-generation Trainium 3 project to Alchip, and potentially ceded Microsoft’s Maia Gen3 to Broadcom. These claims, alongside the delayed Investor Day, have led to a wave of analyst downgrades, price target cuts, and a roughly 40% YTD slide in the stock. Reaffirming traction in these hyperscaler programs—or revealing new design wins—would go a long way in calming nerves.

Investors should also watch for any updates on the integration of Marvell’s AI-oriented acquisitions and its strategy post the $2.5 billion divestiture of its automotive Ethernet business. While this sale is seen as sharpening focus on high-growth data center opportunities, questions remain around the long-term viability and margin profile of the custom silicon segment. Recent concerns about lower-than-expected ASPs on Trainium2 and broader pricing pressure in AI infrastructure have added to the scrutiny.

Beyond hyperscaler commentary, demand for Marvell’s Inphi PAM4 DSPs and optical interconnect solutions will be key. The company has consistently flagged these as strong areas of growth, particularly as AI clusters scale up and bandwidth demands increase. Analysts expect solid sequential growth here, but whether it's enough to offset investor unease around custom ASIC share loss is unclear.

Also on the radar are macro-related concerns, including the impact of new tariff risks under the Trump administration and a potential Section 232 investigation into semiconductor imports. These geopolitical crosscurrents could weigh on guidance and visibility, especially if Marvell’s supply chain proves more globally integrated than peers'.

Investors are still digesting the fallout from its mixed Q4 release, which sent shares tumbling nearly 18%. While headline results for the January quarter were solid — including 24% sequential growth in the data center segment — the reaction underscored just how unforgiving the market has become toward AI-centric semis when results fall short of perfection. The key issue wasn't the quarter itself, but the lack of a more aggressive outlook: Marvell’s guidance was largely in line, disappointing investors hoping for a step-up, especially in AI-related custom silicon revenue.

The company tried to reassure investors by emphasizing growth prospects at Amazon, with management confirming it remains engaged on next-gen XPU development and expects AWS-related revenue to grow in FY26 and FY27. Still, sentiment took a hit as derivative names like Alchip and Credo outperformed expectations in the same space, raising the bar for Marvell. Analysts trimmed price targets broadly — often by double digits — but many maintained positive ratings, citing long-term visibility into AI, custom ASICs, and CPO.

For Q1, watch closely for commentary on AI revenue ramp timing, customer-specific traction (especially at AWS and Microsoft), and whether the anticipated acceleration in the optical and ASIC segments is materializing.

To summarize, here are the five key things to watch in Marvell’s Q1 earnings report:

Custom Silicon Traction – Can management reaffirm its roadmap with AWS and MSFT, or are share losses more significant than expected?

Data Center Segment Growth – Does demand for Inphi and optical products hold up amid broader hyperscaler investment?

Guidance for Q2 and FY26 – Is the outlook conservative or constructive, especially in light of canceled Investor Day plans?

ASP Commentary and Margins – How are pricing dynamics evolving in high-performance compute products?

Tariff and Macro Impact – Will management address risks from tariffs, supply chain shifts, or export controls?

With sentiment already fragile and AI exposure under scrutiny, Marvell’s ability to deliver more than just in-line numbers will be critical. Investors will be watching closely—not just for the Q1 results, but for clues as to whether the long-term AI narrative is still intact.