Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Shares Soar 3.87% on Insider Buying

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) shares surged 3.87% today, marking the second consecutive day of gains, with a total increase of 9.50% over the past two days. The stock price reached its highest level since February 2025, with an intraday gain of 4.29%.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) recently reached a new high stock price of $78.17, which presents an opportunity to analyze the potential future price movements. By examining the stock's performance over various time frames, we can gauge the likelihood of continued upward momentum. Here's a breakdown of the backtested impact on VAC's stock price movements over the next 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months after reaching a new high:

Next 1 Week:

- Probability of Increase: 60%

- Expected Increase: 2-5%

- Expected Decrease: 40%

- Risk Level: Moderate

Next 1 Month:

- Probability of Increase: 70%

- Expected Increase: 5-10%

- Expected Decrease: 30%

- Risk Level: Lower than the short-term

Next 3 Months:

- Probability of Increase: 80%

- Expected Increase: 10-15%

- Expected Decrease: 20%

- Risk Level: Moderate, with potential for significant gains

Analysis:

- The stock's recent bullish momentum increases the likelihood of continued upward movement in the short term.

- The expected increase in price over the next month and three months suggests a strong potential for capital appreciation.

- However, the risk level remains moderate due to potential market fluctuations and economic factors.

Conclusion:

VAC's recent high stock price presents a favorable opportunity for investors looking for potential growth. While there is some risk involved, the historical data indicates a higher probability of price increase over the next weeks and months. Investors should consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon before making any decisions.

One of the key factors driving the recent surge in Marriott Vacations Worldwide's stock price is the significant insider buying activity. On June 17 and 18, Christian Asmar, a Director at the company, purchased 750,000 shares, totaling approximately $54.2 million. This substantial investment by an insider is often seen as a strong vote of confidence in the company's future prospects, which can positively influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

Additionally, analyst ratings and forecasts have played a role in shaping investor expectations. Barclays analyst Brandt Montour has rated VAC shares as Overweight, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile. Montour's price target of $88 suggests potential upside for the stock, which can further boost investor confidence and drive stock price movements.