Marriott International (MAR) Stock Surges 4.77% as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

Marriott International (MAR) Technical Analysis

Marriott International (MAR) surged 4.77% in the most recent session, closing at $295.84 on 2025-11-21. This sharp rally follows a period of consolidation, with key technical indicators suggesting potential short-term momentum. Below is a structured analysis across multiple frameworks:

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action on the daily chart reveals a strong bullish engulfing pattern on 2025-11-21, confirming a reversal from prior bearish pressure. Key support levels are identified at $263.89 (2025-10-03 low) and $253.21 (2025-06-12 low), while resistance is clustered near $295.84 (current close) and $304.45 (2025-02-10 high). The 2025-11-21 close above the $285.72 (2025-11-14 high) level suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend, though a bearish harami near $272.24 (2025-11-04 close) could act as a short-term barrier if volatility increases.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (currently ~$278.50) is above the 100-day MA (~$265.20), indicating a bullish short-term trend. The 200-day MA (~$260.00) acts as a critical support level. The price is currently above all three MAs, reinforcing a long-term bullish bias. However, the 50-day MA’s recent flattening suggests waning momentum, with potential for a pullback toward the 100-day MA if volume fails to sustain above $700 million.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows a narrowing bullish divergence, with the fast line (~$2.30) above the signal line (~$1.80), signaling sustained momentum. The KDJ indicator (Stochastic oscillator) reads at 85/90, suggesting overbought conditions. A close below the 50% K-line threshold (~$280) could trigger a correction, though the J-line’s recent divergence from price action implies caution about premature reversals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to a range of $260–$300. The current close at $295.84 sits near the upper band, indicating overbought territory. A breakdown below the middle band (~$278) would signal increased bearish risk, while a sustained close above the upper band could extend the uptrend.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked to $701 million on 2025-11-21, validating the recent price surge. However, volume has declined in subsequent sessions, raising concerns about sustainability. A follow-through increase in volume during the next rally would strengthen the bullish case, while a volume contraction could indicate waning buying pressure.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI is at 68, approaching overbought territory. While this aligns with the MACD’s bullish signal, it diverges from the KDJ’s overbought reading, suggesting a potential false signal. A close below 50 would validate bearish momentum, but given the stock’s recent strength, the RSI may remain elevated without a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 2025-02-10 high ($304.45) to the 2025-06-12 low ($253.21) include 38.2% ($278.00), 50% ($278.83), and 61.8% ($279.66). The current price is approaching the 78.6% retracement level (~$295.00), which could act as a pivot point for further upside or a consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a strategy buying MAR when RSI exceeds 70 and selling after five days yielded a 7.29% loss over the past year, with two losing trades and one minor gain. This underperformance likely stems from RSI’s failure to predict trend reversals in a stock exhibiting strong long-term momentum. The strategy’s rigidity to a fixed time horizon ignores contextual factors like moving average alignment and volume confirmation, highlighting the need for adaptive criteria.

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