Marlin/Tether Market Overview

• Price action saw a bearish reversal from 0.00823 to 0.00768 with a 7.0% decline.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 30 and MACD turned negative.
• Volatility expanded mid-cycle before collapsing toward the 24-hour close.
• Notional turnover spiked around 19:15 ET and 09:15 ET, aligning with key price swings.
• A key support cluster forms at 0.00780–0.00785, coinciding with recent Fibonacci levels.

The PONDUSDT pair opened at 0.00805 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00781 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, trading as high as 0.00825 and as low as 0.00767. Total volume over 24 hours reached 62,402,005.0, with a notional turnover calculated using the dataset’s price points.

Structure & Formations

Price action on PONDUSDT exhibited a sharp bearish reversal from a mid-day high near 0.00823 to a 24-hour low at 0.00767, with a significant bearish engulfing pattern forming between 19:00–19:30 ET. Key support levels appear to have formed at 0.00782–0.00785, reinforced by multiple bounces and Fibonacci retracements. Resistance remains at 0.00805–0.00806, coinciding with a prior swing low and a 61.8% Fibonacci level from the 0.00823–0.00767 swing. A notable bearish divergence in volume and price was observed around 12:30–13:30 ET, where price continued to fall despite diminishing turnover.

Moving Averages

Using a 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, the price has remained below both lines since mid-day, confirming a bearish bias. The 50-period line appears to be acting as dynamic resistance around 0.00800–0.00802. On the daily chart (assuming a 50/100/200-period), the current price is significantly below all three, reinforcing the bearish momentum and indicating a continuation of the downtrend is likely unless a strong reversal develops.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line around 17:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. By the close, the MACD was in deeply negative territory, with a bearish histogram. RSI dropped below 30 for most of the session, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to generate a meaningful rebound. These readings indicate continued bearish momentum, with limited immediate upside potential unless a bullish reversal occurs at critical support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the mid-session, with price reaching the upper band during the 17:00–19:30 ET period. As the session progressed, volatility contracted again, with price settling near the lower band by the 24-hour close. This contraction suggests a potential consolidation phase, but with price still below the 20-period moving average, the risk of a further decline remains high.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:15 ET (a 9.1M+ volume candle) and at 09:15 ET, coinciding with key price moves. Turnover aligned with these volume surges, confirming the moves. However, in the final 3 hours, volume and turnover both declined, indicating a loss of conviction among traders. Price and turnover diverged slightly in the 12:30–13:45 ET period, with falling prices and lower turnover suggesting a potential exhaustion phase in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 0.00823–0.00767 swing, the price found a temporary floor at 0.00782, aligning with the 38.2% level. The 61.8% level at 0.00787 acted as a minor resistance but was breached late in the session. These levels may serve as potential support and resistance for the next 24 hours, with the 0.00782 level being the most immediate concern for bulls.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on capturing momentum shifts using a dual-MA crossover system on the 15-minute timeframe, paired with RSI overbought/oversold signals to confirm entries. Given the recent bearish momentum and RSI readings in the oversold region, a long entry at the 0.00781 close, with a stop just below the 0.00773 level, could be considered. The strategy would aim to take advantage of a potential rebound off the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with the 20-period MA as a dynamic support trigger. This aligns with the current technical setup and could be integrated with a trailing stop for risk control.