Marlin/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• PONDUSDT saw a 0.00033 (4.0%) rise over 24 hours, with buying pressure intensifying in the final 6 hours.
• Volatility expanded during the day, pushing price above 0.0084 and reaching a 24-hour high of 0.00867.
• RSI signaled moderate overbought conditions by midday, with volume surging in key bullish hours.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed after a 0.0085 support level held overnight.
• Notional turnover increased by 120% in the final 6 hours, aligning with price action.

The PONDUSDT pair opened at 0.0083 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00868 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 0.00867, and the low was 0.00828. Total trading volume for the period was 32.5 million units, with a notional turnover of $280,000. The pair showed strong bullish momentum in the late hours of the previous day and into early morning, followed by consolidation and a final push higher.

Structure & Formations

The price of PONDUSDT formed a key bullish engulfing pattern around 19:45 ET as it closed above the previous candle's body after testing the 0.00846 level. This suggests a short-term reversal of bearish momentum. A small doji appeared at 02:45 ET, indicating indecision during the overnight consolidation phase. Key support levels held throughout the session, most notably at 0.0084–0.0085, while the 0.0086 resistance was tested and broken during late morning hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bullish alignment by 04:00 ET, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. By the final candle of the session, the price was trading above both MAs. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 0.0086 level, and the price has moved above both the 50 and 200-day MAs, indicating a possible short- to medium-term bull trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive after 02:00 ET and continued to rise through the session, confirming the bullish divergence. The histogram widened, showing increasing momentum. RSI climbed into overbought territory by 10:00 ET, peaking at 68, and remained elevated until midday. This suggests the market may be due for a minor pullback or consolidation in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the overnight hours, pushing the price above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.00863 by 00:00 ET. By mid-morning, the price remained within the bands, closing near the upper band at 0.00868. This expansion suggests rising volatility and potential continuation of the upward move, though a reversion into the band could signal exhaustion or a short-term pause.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked significantly after 14:00 ET, peaking at 2.9 million units during the candle ending at 14:15 ET. Notional turnover surged in line with this volume, indicating strong conviction in the upward move. However, a divergence appeared around 12:00 ET when price rose while volume dipped, suggesting possible exhaustion in the final hours of consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the overnight swing from 0.00828 to 0.00863 showed the price finding support at the 38.2% level (0.00841), followed by a break above the 61.8% level (0.00854). This suggests continued bullish momentum into the next key resistance at 0.0087, though a retest of the 0.0085 level is expected for confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong momentum and volume confirmation observed during the late morning and afternoon of 2025-09-18, a backtesting strategy based on a 15-minute RSI overbought divergence (above 60) combined with price above both the 20 and 50-period MAs could be tested. A long entry would be triggered on a close above the previous candle's high, with a stop-loss below the 0.0085 level. A target could be set at 0.00875 or the next Fibonacci level. This setup aligns well with the observed price behavior and volume spikes, suggesting a high-probability trade entry during a confirmed bullish phase.