Market Wrap: Choppy Mixed Trading Session Reflects Market Uncertainty around Rates
AInvestWednesday, Jan 8, 2025 8:19 pm ET
1min read

The stock market experienced a volatile session, with major indices delivering mixed results as investors contended with rising Treasury yields, fluctuating performance in mega-cap stocks, and economic releases that provided a nuanced view of the economic landscape.

The S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.2 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.3 percent. Conversely, the Nasdaq Composite slipped by 0.1 percent, reflecting continued pressure on technology and growth-oriented names.

The bond market saw minimal movement overall, though the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.69 percent, gaining one basis point, while the 2-year yield eased slightly to 4.29 percent. These moves came on the back of economic reports and a well-received $22 billion 30-year bond auction, which indicated strong investor demand.

The day’s economic data painted a mixed picture. The ADP Employment Change report for December came in below expectations at 122,000, signaling a slowdown in private-sector hiring. On the other hand, weekly initial jobless claims defied consensus, dropping to 201,000 and underscoring resilience in labor market stability. Continuing claims, however, increased to 1.867 million, highlighting challenges for unemployed individuals in securing new positions.

Additionally, November consumer credit contracted by $7.49 billion, a stark reversal from October's revised $17.3 billion increase. The decline was primarily driven by a drop in revolving credit, reflecting the strain of higher interest rates on consumer borrowing.

The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes echoed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks, emphasizing caution on further rate cuts. Policymakers expressed a need for greater confidence in inflation's return to the 2 percent target or heightened concerns about labor market weakness before considering additional monetary easing.

As a result, market expectations for a March rate cut diminished, with the probability now at 40.4 percent, down from 53.0 percent a week ago.

On the international front, European markets were subdued, with the DAX and CAC showing modest losses while the FTSE posted a slight gain. In Asia, the Hang Seng dropped by 0.9 percent, and the Nikkei fell 0.3 percent, while the Shanghai Composite ended flat.

Commodities showed mixed performance. Crude oil slipped 1.5 percent to $73.28 per barrel amid demand concerns, while natural gas climbed 4.6 percent to $3.17. Gold edged higher, gaining 0.3 percent to settle at $2673.40, as inflation concerns and geopolitical risks supported demand for safe-haven assets.

The day’s price action reflects a cautious sentiment among investors navigating higher yields, potential shifts in monetary policy, and uneven economic signals. With the NYSE closed tomorrow in honor of the late President Jimmy Carter, markets will have an additional day to digest today’s developments and prepare for the next wave of data and earnings.

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