Market Overview for ZKCUSDC (Boundless/USDC): Volatility and Bearish Momentum

• ZKCUSDC opened at 0.2779, peaked at 0.2966, and closed at 0.2689 — a 24-hour decline of ~10.3%.
• Price formed multiple bearish reversal patterns including a large bearish engulfing candle at 21:45 ET and a bearish harami at 05:15 ET.
• RSI fell below 30 in the final hours of the session, signaling oversold conditions, though no immediate bounce followed.
• Volatility expanded with a high-low range of ~7.5% and volume spiked at key inflection points, most notably during the late-night rebound attempt.
• A strong support zone emerged near 0.2530–0.2570, with price testing this range multiple times before a final close above it.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-18, ZKCUSDC traded at 0.2689, down from its 12:00 ET–1 open of 0.2779. The 24-hour high of 0.2966 and low of 0.2439 marked a broad 7.5% range, with total volume reaching ~9.1 million contracts and notional turnover exceeding $2.44 million. Price action displayed a bearish bias, particularly in the second half of the session, with key support and resistance levels becoming more defined.

Over the 24-hour period, ZKCUSDC tested a critical support zone around 0.2530–0.2570 on multiple occasions. A 15-minute candle that opened at 0.2609 and closed at 0.2619 on 2025-10-18 05:15 ET formed a bearish harami pattern, suggesting a reversal in a short-term uptrend. Later, at 21:45 ET, a large bearish engulfing pattern opened at 0.2760 and closed at 0.2529, confirming a strong shift in sentiment. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On a daily scale, the 50-period and 200-period EMA lines were separated by ~5%, indicating no strong alignment in trend.

The RSI indicator fell below the 30 level at multiple points, most notably just before the 12:00 ET close, but failed to trigger a rebound. This suggests a weakening in bullish conviction and potential exhaustion of short-term buyers. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram showing a broadening bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands reflected a moderate increase in volatility, with the narrowest contraction observed around 04:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion that mirrored the late-night price drop. Price spent the final four hours of the session near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, reinforcing oversold conditions.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart showed that the price found temporary support at the 61.8% level during its drop from 0.2966 to 0.2529. The 38.2% retracement level (~0.2760) acted as resistance twice, indicating a potential area of congestion. These retracement levels may be worth monitoring for potential entry points or consolidation zones in the next 24 hours. The overall structure suggests that ZKCUSDC is in a period of retesting and consolidation, with key support near 0.2530 and resistance near 0.2800. A break below 0.2530 could open the door for a test of 0.2463, while a reversal above 0.2800 might signal a resumption of the short-term downtrend.

The MACD and RSI indicators both confirmed a bearish bias over the 24-hour period, making them strong tools for a backtesting strategy. Using the standard RSI thresholds of overbought (≥ 70) and oversold (≤ 30), ZKCUSDC spent the final hours of the session near the 30 level without triggering a rebound — a scenario that could be explored in a rules-based backtest. If we applied this strategy to ZKCUSDC, we would likely see a signal to close long positions or open short positions when RSI fell below 30 and remained there for a set period. The MACD crossover provided additional confirmation of bearish momentum, especially with the histogram diverging in the final hours. This suggests that the backtesting strategy could be adapted to ZKCUSDC, using RSI and MACD as entry and exit signals.