Market Overview: ZKCUSDC in a 24-Hour Volatility Spree

• ZKCUSDC dropped 6.6% from $0.2439 to $0.2309 in 24 hours amid heightened volatility and divergent volume patterns.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early on, followed by a deep pullback into a key support zone around $0.2308–0.2315.
• Notional turnover surged over $190,000 during the session, while volume spiked at key inflection points.
• RSI and MACD suggested momentum weakness, with prices nearing oversold territory by early morning ET.
• Price remains near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of a recent 15-minute swing, suggesting potential for a countertrend bounce.

ZKCUSDC opened at $0.2439 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2309 the next day. The pair reached a high of $0.2466 and fell to a low of $0.2308. Total volume for the 24-hour period was ~1.05M contracts, while total notional turnover came in at approximately $250,000. The price action was dominated by a prolonged bearish trend, with a brief attempt at a countermove failing around $0.2364–0.2371.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours was marked by a significant bearish breakdown from early resistance levels. A bearish engulfing pattern formed immediately after the open, followed by a strong downward trend that carved out a key support zone between $0.2308 and $0.2315. A doji formed near $0.2309 in the early morning hours, indicating a possible short-term equilibrium point. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent 15-minute swing currently sits at $0.2309, suggesting a potential bounce point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period EMA lines, indicating short-term bearish bias. The 200-period daily SMA remains far above the current level, but the 50-period daily EMA has crossed below the 200-period line, signaling a shift in intermediate-term sentiment. Price appears to be consolidating near the 50-day moving average, which could either mark a temporary floor or a continuation of the downward drift.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained below the signal line for much of the session, with a bearish crossover observed around 19:45 ET. The RSI has dropped to 29.3, nearing oversold territory, but has yet to trigger a strong countertrend move. The combination suggests weakening momentum and a potential pause in the bearish move, though divergence between RSI and price remains a concern. A bullish RSI divergence could suggest a short-term bounce, but confirmation is needed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly over the past 24 hours, with price reaching the lower band on multiple occasions. A sharp contraction in band width occurred briefly around 19:30 ET before widening again. The current price of $0.2309 lies near the lower Bollinger band, which has acted as a support multiple times. A break below this level would signal a new leg lower, but a retest of the band’s midpoint could offer a near-term rebound opportunity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial breakdown and again during the late-night consolidation phase. Total notional turnover amounted to approximately $250,000 over the 24-hour period, with the most significant activity between 19:00–22:00 ET. Notably, a sharp divergence between declining price and relatively stable turnover during the 02:00–05:00 ET window suggests lingering bearish conviction. However, the lack of follow-through in early morning volume may indicate reduced conviction on further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% retracement level on the recent 15-minute swing currently aligns with the $0.2309 level. This area has seen multiple rejections and could either hold as a short-term floor or break to extend the bearish move. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger downtrend lies at $0.2344, which could offer a potential near-term target if buyers manage to push back into the 2350–2370 range. Traders may watch for a bounce from these levels or for a break below the 61.8% level as a continuation signal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakdown and potential for a MACD Death-Cross in the near-term, a backtest could be designed to evaluate the impact of such a signal. A MACD Death-Cross typically occurs when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, often used as a bearish entry trigger. By confirming the correct trading pair and retrieving or calculating the MACD series, we can run an event-based backtest from 2022-01-01 to today. This would allow us to assess how frequently a Death-Cross predicts a valid bearish move in the pair, and to what extent the strategy would have profited or lost over the period. Supplying the correct ticker symbol or a CSV/JSON of the daily price series will enable this analysis.