Market Overview for Zilliqa (ZILUSD)

• ZILUSD traded lower, closing at 0.01129 after a 24-hour low of 0.0112.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions but mixed recovery signals.
• Volatility was compressed during overnight hours with minimal turnover.
• A sharp selloff emerged at 08:15 ET, followed by consolidation.
• Fibonacci levels near 0.0112–0.0114 may act as immediate support.

Zilliqa (ZILUSD) opened at 0.01192 on August 28 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01129 on August 29 at the same time. The 24-hour session saw a high of 0.01208 and a low of 0.0112, with a total volume of 339,312.5 and a notional turnover of $4,001.70 (calculated from price × volume). The price action unfolded with a sharp bearish move at the start of the session, followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish impulse during the early hours of the session, with a key low at 0.0112 coinciding with a volume spike of 288,846.5 at 08:15 ET. This level appears to be acting as a short-term floor, with subsequent candles failing to break below it. A potential bullish reversal is forming near 0.0112–0.0114, but a confirmation of a reversal would require a close above the previous high of 0.01132. A doji formed near the 0.01127 level, signaling indecision and possible reversal in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price is well below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a strong bearish bias. The 50-period MA currently sits at 0.01165, and the 20-period MA is at 0.01170, both of which could act as resistance levels. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are in a downward trend, reinforcing the bearish structure and suggesting the current bearish momentum is likely to persist.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in negative territory, with a bearish crossover confirming the downward momentum. The histogram has been shrinking, suggesting a potential slowdown in the sell-off. The RSI is near oversold territory at 28, signaling a possible bounce. However, given the prolonged bearish trend, the RSI may remain in oversold conditions without a significant reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price is sitting near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with volatility appearing to contract after the sharp sell-off. The band width has narrowed, suggesting a potential break or continuation. A sustained move above the middle band would signal a shift in momentum, but for now, the price remains within the bearish range defined by the bands.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 08:15 ET, coinciding with the price reaching 0.0112. This was the largest single candle volume at 288,846.5, indicating a significant selloff at that time. Turnover followed the same pattern, with notional value reaching a session high during this move. Subsequent candles saw a return to low-volume consolidation, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent swing high of 0.01177 to the low at 0.0112 show the 38.2% retracement at 0.0114 and the 61.8% at 0.0115. These levels may act as resistance if the price attempts a recovery. On the 15-minute chart, the 0.0112–0.0114 range aligns with key support levels and could provide a near-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based backtest strategy tested a mean-reversion approach using common thresholds (30 for entry, 50 for exit). Since 2022, this approach has delivered a total return of -58.8%, with an average loss of -1.31% per trade. The prolonged bear market for ZILUSD has eroded the effectiveness of this strategy, as oversold conditions have failed to produce reliable bounces. The negative Sharpe ratio of approximately -0.12 highlights the suboptimal risk-reward trade-off. Investors should consider alternative entry/exit thresholds or incorporate additional filters (e.g., moving average crossovers or volume confirmation) to improve performance in a bearish environment.