Market Overview for Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) – 2025-11-06

Summary

• Price fluctuated in a tight range around 0.00697, failing to break key levels.
• Volume surged at key reversal points but declined as consolidation set in.
• Momentum indicators suggest neutral to bearish bias, with no clear breakout potential.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-session, signaling potential volatility ahead.

Opening Summary

Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) opened at 0.00695 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00697 the following day at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 0.00703, while the low dipped to 0.00684. Total volume for the period was 125,640,440.80, and notional turnover stood at approximately $888,880 (assuming ZIL price ≈ $0.00697). Price action appears to be consolidating, with mixed candlestick signals and no clear directional breakout.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a series of indecisive patterns, including doji and inside bars, particularly during the late ET hours and early morning. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 02:45–03:00 ET, followed by a failed bullish attempt at 05:00 ET. The 0.00695–0.00698 range appears to be the main support/resistance zone, with 0.00688 forming a key psychological level. A break below this level could target 0.00680–0.00675.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is slightly above the 50-period MA, suggesting a neutral bias. Both lines are trending lower, aligning with the bearish pressure observed mid-session. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are in descending order, indicating that ZIL is still below its long-term trend lines. Price remains below all three, signaling a weak macro-level structure that may hinder near-term upside attempts.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been shrinking in the negative territory since the morning hours, hinting at a slowdown in bearish momentum. The RSI, currently at around 48, is within neutral territory. A move above 50 could spark buying interest, but a drop below 40 would signal deeper oversold conditions. The recent divergence between price and RSI—where price made lower highs but RSI did not—suggests weak conviction in the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly around 0.00695–0.00697 during the early morning, indicating a potential low-volatility period. This was followed by a modest expansion during the day, with price hovering near the mid-band. A breakout above the upper band (around 0.00705) or below the lower band (near 0.00689) could trigger a sharp directional move. For now, price remains within the consolidation range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 24-hour swing include 38.2% at 0.00696 and 61.8% at 0.00691. The 61.8% level appears to hold as a critical support, with price failing to close below it in most sessions. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent high (0.00703) to the low (0.00680) suggest that 0.00693 and 0.00691 are critical for trend direction. A decisive close below 0.00691 would likely target 0.00686–0.00680.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key reversal points, such as at 02:45 ET and 05:15 ET, but remained muted during consolidation periods. The highest notional turnover occurred around 03:45 ET, when a large bullish candle formed. Price and volume diverged slightly after 07:30 ET, with higher volume failing to push price above 0.00699. This weak confirmation suggests buyer fatigue and could precede a downward correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A standard MACD-based backtesting strategy, using the (12, 26, 9) settings, was applied to ZILUSDT over 3.5 years, from 2022 to 2025-11-06. The strategy generated a total return of -31.86%, with an annualized return of 16.78% and a maximum drawdown of 82.91%. These results suggest that while the MACD Golden Cross occasionally captured positive momentum, the frequent Death Cross closures led to a net loss. The poor Sharpe ratio of 0.22 highlights the high risk-adjusted cost of following this approach. Given the recent mixed price action and weak volume confirmation, traders should consider adding stop-losses and tighter risk controls if applying MACD-based entries to ZILUSDT.