Market Overview for Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) on 2025-10-13

• Price climbed to a high of $0.00867, but closed lower at $0.00863, showing mixed momentum.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions at times, while MACD remained in bullish territory.
• Volatility expanded during early trading hours, with volume peaking around $0.00863.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 13:45 ET, indicating increased uncertainty ahead of the close.
• A potential resistance forms near $0.00867 and support at $0.00841 following key 15-minute swings.

Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) opened at $0.00816 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of $0.00867 by midday on October 13. The pair closed at $0.00863 at 12:00 ET on October 13 after trading between $0.00828 and $0.00867 over the 24-hour window. Total volume for the session was 89,164,647 ZIL, with a notional turnover of approximately $760,000 at the average rate of $0.00852.

Structure & Formations

Price action on ZILUSDT displayed a strong bearish reversal from the upper Bollinger Band during the afternoon hours, following an early morning breakout to $0.00867. Key support levels appear to form at $0.00841 and $0.00834, with the latter showing increased consolidation after a sharp pullback. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 15:00 ET as ZILUSDT moved from $0.00857 to $0.00852, signaling potential short-term bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed positively, supporting the bullish trend earlier in the session. However, by late afternoon, the 20-period MA began to flatten, while the 50-period MA showed signs of bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, but the 100-period MA has started to cross below, suggesting a weakening trend in the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained above the signal line for most of the session, indicating a sustained bullish bias. However, a bearish crossover occurred at around 15:30 ET, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern. RSI briefly entered overbought territory (above 70) during the morning high at $0.00867, but declined thereafter to neutral levels (~52 at close), suggesting exhaustion in the recent rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 13:45 ET, pushing prices to the upper Bollinger Band at $0.00867. This expansion may indicate a potential reversion to the mean. Prices have since pulled back into the upper half of the band, maintaining a bullish tone, but traders should watch for a break below the lower band at $0.00841, which could trigger a deeper correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late morning and early afternoon, especially around the $0.00863–$0.00867 range, confirming the strength of the breakout. However, the volume profile began to wane in the final hours, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, with a peak of approximately $22,000 during the 10:15 ET–10:30 ET timeframe.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key 15-minute swing high of $0.00867 and low of $0.00845 revealed strong interest at the 61.8% level near $0.00856, where price consolidated for a brief period. Daily retracements from the recent swing low to high showed support at the 38.2% level of $0.00841, which appears to have held during the pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD Golden-Cross strategy applied to ZILUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13 showed a total return of –24.42%, with an annualized return of 18.75%. Despite the positive annualized performance, the strategy was plagued by a severe maximum drawdown of 79.67%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.25 suggests poor risk-adjusted returns. These findings indicate that while the strategy may identify bullish momentum, it lacks robust risk management and may not be suited for volatile or highly leveraged traders without additional filters or stop-loss mechanisms.