Market Overview: Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• ZIL/USDT traded in a tight range, testing key support around $0.0079 and resistance near $0.00805
• Momentum weakened late in the 24-hour window, with RSI dipping below 50 and MACD declining
• Volatility spiked mid-day as price dropped from $0.0104 to $0.0084, but failed to follow through
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-day, indicating increased uncertainty and potential for a breakout
• On-chain volume surged during the dip but failed to confirm a strong rebound, suggesting indecision

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) opened at $0.01043 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00802 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $0.01052 (high) to $0.00451 (low). The total traded volume was 412,461,216.2 ZIL, and notional turnover amounted to $3,331,850. The pair showed significant intraday volatility but failed to generate sustained bullish or bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern revealed a bearish breakdown from a key resistance level at $0.0103 and subsequent consolidation between $0.0079 and $0.00805. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared on the candle starting at 2025-1010 19:15 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji formed on the $0.00803–$0.00801 range, indicating indecision near the $0.00805 psychological level. Price appears to be consolidating around the $0.00802–$0.00797 range, with a potential for either a breakout or a pullback.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is at $0.00798, crossing below the 50-period MA at $0.00801, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at $0.00815, above the 100-period MA ($0.00799) and the 200-period MA ($0.00784), suggesting medium-term bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent swing from $0.00451 to $0.01052 show that the current price is sitting near the 50% retracement level at $0.00753, but has bounced off the 61.8% level at $0.00794 and is now consolidating near $0.00802.

MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

The 12/26/9 MACD has been trending downward, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has been below 50 for much of the last 24 hours, indicating a weakening bullish stance, and recently hit 43, suggesting oversold conditions may develop. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, reflecting a period of high volatility and uncertainty. Price has since settled near the mid-band, indicating a potential for consolidation or a breakout.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked significantly during the sharp selloff from $0.0104 to $0.0084, but failed to confirm a strong continuation, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move. The largest volume spike was recorded at $0.00798 with 45,318,589.4 ZIL traded, coinciding with a key support level. Turnover, however, did not follow the same pattern, with the largest turnover occurring during a smaller-volume session near $0.00791, suggesting possible order imbalance or accumulation in that zone. Price and volume appear to be slightly divergent at key levels, which could signal future volatility.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on a mean-reversion approach based on RSI and Bollinger Bands. It triggers long entries when RSI drops below 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, while short entries are triggered when RSI rises above 70 and price touches the upper band. The strategy also incorporates a 10-period EMA crossover for confirmation. Given the recent volatility and RSI dip into oversold territory, this approach may find entry opportunities near $0.00794–$0.00797. The current Bollinger Bands, however, are relatively compressed, suggesting a potential expansion may follow, which could increase the odds of a successful trade. The strategy would benefit from a clearer trend or a breakout confirmation to avoid whipsaws in the current choppy environment.