Market Overview for Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) on 2025-09-19

• ZILUSDT fell 9.06% in 24 hours, closing near 0.01188 after a sharp sell-off from 0.01239.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI < 30 and declining volume during the dump. • Key support at 0.01183 tested twice, with rebound limited to 0.01198–0.01200. • Bollinger Band contraction observed in late ET hours before the sharp breakdown. • Divergence between volume and price during the final 6 hours signaled exhaustion.

The Zilliqa/Tether pair (ZILUSDT) opened at 0.01208 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01188 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.01239 and a low of 0.01183. The 24-hour volume amounted to 98,834,031.5 ZIL, translating to a notional turnover of $1,193,490 (based on mid-range price). The downward move was driven by a sharp sell-off in the early morning hours of 2025-09-19, with price dropping below key support levels after a brief consolidation phase.
Structure and candlestick patterns suggest a bearish bias. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.01228–0.01222, followed by a long lower shadow in the 01:45–02:00 ET candle, indicating rejection. The price later broke below the 0.01215–0.01218 range, a previous consolidation area. The 0.01183 level, initially a support, became a magnet for selling pressure, with price failing to recover above 0.01195 after multiple attempts.
The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both sloped downward, confirming the bearish momentum. The daily chart showed the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages aligned in a downtrend, reinforcing the medium-term bearish setup. The MACD crossed below zero in the early hours of 2025-09-19, indicating declining bullish momentum, while the RSI plunged into oversold territory (<30), signaling potential for a short-term rebound.
Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the break, with price breaking below the lower band in the 03:45–04:00 ET hour. This breakout was confirmed by declining volume and a bearish continuation pattern. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of 0.01239 to the low of 0.01183 were 0.01217 and 0.01204, respectively. Price has yet to retest these levels, suggesting potential for a bounce before further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when RSI(14) falls below 30 and volume exceeds the 20-period average, with a stop-loss set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 0.01217 for the 38.2% level). A take-profit target is placed at 61.8% of the move (0.01204) for a risk-reward ratio of 1:1. This approach appears to align with the recent ZILUSDT behavior, as both conditions were met before the 03:45–04:00 ET breakdown. The strategy may benefit from tighter stops during high volatility periods and adjustments for volume divergence to avoid false signals.