Market Overview: ZEROBASE/USDC (ZBTUSDC) – 24-Hour Summary

• Price opened at $0.1945 and closed at $0.1917 with a 24-hour high of $0.1990.
• Volatility expanded, with a 15-minute high-low range peaking at 0.0045 during early morning hours.
• Volume spiked to 132,924.4 at 03:30 ET but declined toward the end of the day.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions in the midday hours, with MACD divergence hinting at bearish momentum.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near $0.1924, but failed to hold above the 0.1942 resistance level.

ZBTUSDC traded between $0.1910 and $0.1990 over the last 24 hours, opening at $0.1945 on 2025-10-31 12:00 ET and closing at $0.1917 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-01. The total volume amounted to 1,748,662.5, while turnover reached $333,712.1. The price experienced a modest bearish drift, with a late-night rebound peaking at $0.1990 failing to carry momentum into the following morning.

On the 15-minute chart, ZBTUSDC appears to have found a temporary support around $0.1921, with a resistance zone forming between $0.1942 and $0.1947. The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET was quickly reversed, indicating potential bearish pressure in the short term. A doji at $0.1929 and a long lower shadow at $0.1901 suggest indecision and possible accumulation near the $0.1920–$0.1925 range.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover at $0.1935, reinforcing the recent downward momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. The MACD has been in negative territory for much of the day with a bearish crossover, while the RSI crossed below 30 at 21:30 ET, signaling an oversold condition that has yet to trigger a meaningful rebound.

The Bollinger Bands widened significantly as price approached the $0.1990 high, indicating a burst in volatility. Price retracted sharply and closed near the lower band, suggesting weak conviction in the rally. On the 15-minute chart, price appears to be consolidating within a tighter range, with the middle band acting as a temporary resistance around $0.1930. On the daily chart, Fibonacci retracements of the recent $0.1910–$0.1990 move suggest 61.8% retracement at $0.1953 could serve as a key resistance ahead.

Volume and turnover data reveal a notable divergence: while volume spiked to a high of 132,924.4 at 03:30 ET during a $0.1965–$0.1990 rally, the subsequent pullback saw low volume, suggesting the bullish move lacked conviction. Turnover, peaking at $26,350.5 at 03:15 ET, confirmed the high-volume rally but failed to carry price above the $0.1968 high. By 04:45 ET, both volume and turnover declined sharply, signaling exhaustion. The final 15 minutes of the 24-hour window showed muted activity, with a close near $0.1917.

Backtest Hypothesis: The “Bullish Engulfing – 5-Day Hold” strategy was tested on ZBTUSDC from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-01. The strategy returned -2.6%, with a Sharpe ratio below zero and an average drawdown of ~11%. The bearish bias observed in recent 15-minute candlestick formations, such as the failed engulfing pattern and doji, aligns with the backtest’s findings that isolated bullish signals without volume or volatility filters may not be reliable. Enhancing the strategy with ATR-based stops or volume confirmation filters could improve performance, especially in a volatile 15-minute timeframe. This suggests that while the engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET appeared promising, it was not sufficient on its own to override the prevailing bearish momentum.