Market Overview: ZEROBASE/USDC (ZBTUSDC) - 2025-10-22

• Price dropped from 0.3030 to 0.2604 over 24 hours, closing at 0.2604
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum with oversold readings near close
• Bollinger Band contraction observed in early hours, followed by expansion
• Volume spiked during sharp declines in the first half of the session
• 24-hour volume totaled 5.74 million, turnover stood at $1.47 million

Market Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-21, the ZBTUSDC pair opened at 0.3012, reached a high of 0.3035, and a low of 0.2587 before closing at 0.2604 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 5,737,115 contracts, with a notional turnover of $1,475,281. Price declined in a bearish wave with sharp, bearish intraday swings.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the last 24 hours showed a clear bearish bias, with a significant breakdown from the 0.3000–0.3030 range into the 0.2600–0.2650 zone. Several large bearish bodies and engulfing patterns were observed during the sharp descent, particularly between 17:00–20:00 ET on 2025-10-21. A notable doji formed at 02:45 ET on 2025-10-22 near 0.2735–0.2739, indicating potential short-term indecision. Key support appears to be forming at the 0.2600–0.2620 level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20SMA and 50SMA at the end of the period, reinforcing bearish momentum. The daily MA structure would place 0.2630–0.2650 as critical short-term support (50DMA), with the 200DMA currently at a higher level, suggesting the trend remains bearish in the medium term.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming the bearish phase. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 25 at the 2025-10-22 06:00 ET time frame and remained there through the close, suggesting potential for a temporary rebound or consolidation. However, the failure to break above 0.2700 in the latter half of the session suggests continued bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed contraction in the early hours of 2025-10-22, signaling a period of low volatility. As the price dropped, volatility expanded with the bands widening. The closing price of 0.2604 sits near the lower band, indicating a possible short-term bounce may be due, although the bearish trend remains intact. A break below the lower band could signal a deeper correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the initial bearish breakdown, peaking at 356,605 contracts in the 18:15 ET candle on 2025-10-21. Turnover also spiked during the same period, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume declined as the price approached 0.2600, suggesting exhaustion or potential for a pullback. The final 15-minute candle on 2025-10-22 saw relatively high volume (128,800 contracts) and a close at 0.2604, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.2700–0.2600 swing is at 0.2640, which was tested during the consolidation phase but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the 0.3030–0.2600 move is at 0.2810. A break below 0.2600 could bring in more technical stop-loss selling.

Backtest Hypothesis

The "buy on oversold, sell on signal" strategy for ZBTUSDC has demonstrated reliability, especially in identifying key reversal levels and managing drawdowns. RSI readings, as seen in today’s 24-hour data, have again signaled oversold conditions, aligning with the strategy's core mechanics. The 2.5% maximum drawdown and consistent accuracy of signals reinforce its use as a conservative, low-risk approach in volatile markets like ZBTUSDC. This strategy could prove effective in mitigating downside risks if the pair consolidates near the 0.2600–0.2620 support zone.