Market Overview for Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• ZECUSDT traded in a 54.25–56.97 range, closing near the lower half at 54.50
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 50 and MACD turned negative
• Volatility expanded, with price testing Bollinger Band lows after a sharp sell-off
• Volume surged during the breakdown, confirming bearish sentiment
• Key support at 54.30–54.50 and resistance at 55.80–56.18 are critical for near-term direction

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at $56.35 on 2025-09-25 16:00 ET, reached a high of $56.97, and closed at $54.50 on 2025-09-26 04:15 ET. The price experienced a sharp drop of nearly $2.50 after 21:00 ET, driven by a spike in volume and a breakdown below key support levels. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 35,085.67 ZEC, while notional turnover reached $1,927,033.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern following a breakdown below the 55.00–55.30 support zone, confirmed by a strong rejection and a long bearish candle with a large body and minimal shadow. A key intraday support at 54.30–54.50 was tested twice, with the second test resulting in a small rejection. The formation suggests potential for a short-term continuation lower, unless buyers re-enter above 55.80. A potential bullish reversal could be flagged if price closes above 56.18, which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period (55.40) and 50-period (55.75) moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, while data is limited to one day, the 50-period moving average sits around 55.00–55.10, which aligns with the immediate support zone. The 200-period average is likely above 56.50, suggesting medium-term bearish pressure if the current move continues.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line and remained negative, with a bearish divergence forming between the histogram and price. RSI has fallen below 50 and is approaching the oversold threshold (30), suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, given the strong volume and bearish momentum, a bounce may lack conviction unless buyers accumulate near 54.30.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with price testing the lower Bollinger Band (54.30) multiple times. The 20-period band was centered near 55.40, and the width increased from approximately 0.30 to over 0.80, signaling heightened uncertainty. A re-test of the upper band at 56.50–56.70 could act as a trigger for short-term bulls.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged between 21:00 and 23:00 ET, peaking with the candle that closed at 54.46 and the one at 54.68, both trading over 2,000 ZEC. This volume confirmed the breakdown below key support, increasing the likelihood of a continuation lower. Notional turnover also spiked during these hours, aligning with price action. Divergence between volume and price is not observed, suggesting strong conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels from the 56.97–54.48 swing include 38.2% at 55.80, 50% at 55.55, and 61.8% at 55.25. Price has stalled near the 55.30 level, suggesting potential for a rebound or a deeper correction toward 54.25, which is near the 78.6% retracement. The 38.2% and 50% levels could serve as potential reversal points if buyers re-enter.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on short entries triggered by a breakdown below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a candle that closes 1.5% below the previous bar’s low and with volume at least 20% above the 10-bar average. Stop-loss would be placed at the 50-period moving average, and a take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bullish move. This approach aligns with the bearish divergence observed in RSI and MACD and the strong volume confirmation of the breakdown.