Market Overview for YieldBasis/USDC (YBUSDC)

YieldBasis/USDC (YBUSDC) opened at 0.4666 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 0.4520 and 0.4958 before closing at 0.4823 as of 12:00 ET on October 25. The pair recorded a total volume of 582,903.3 and a notional turnover of approximately $271,910.20 in the past 24 hours, showing mixed momentum and increased volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours suggests a volatile but structured recovery from a low of 0.4520 on October 24 18:00. A strong bullish reversal pattern is visible near 0.4520–0.4540, followed by a continuation of upward momentum, especially after 20:00 ET on October 24. Resistance appears to form near 0.4800–0.4900, where price has stalled multiple times. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 0.4958 on October 25 01:45, which could indicate potential bearish continuation if support at 0.4840–0.4860 fails.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average currently sits at approximately 0.4800, just below the 50-period moving average at 0.4815. This indicates a slight bullish bias in the short-term trend. For daily data, the 50-period MA is positioned below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias. Price has yet to decisively break above the 50-day moving average, which remains a critical technical level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is currently in positive territory, with the line crossing above the signal line earlier in the morning, forming a bullish crossover. RSI is hovering around the 55–60 range, indicating moderate bullish momentum but not yet entering overbought territory. A break above 65 on RSI could signal further short-term gains, but a drop below 50 may trigger a corrective phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly after 12:00 ET on October 24, with price moving above the upper Bollinger Band at several points. A recent contraction in band width from 0.4820–0.4880 on October 25 suggests a possible consolidation phase before the next move. Price has since settled near the upper band, indicating strength but also potential for a reversion to the mean.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early hours of October 25, particularly between 01:45 and 02:15 ET, coinciding with the highest price of the session. This suggests strong participation during a key breakout attempt. Turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the price action. However, volume has declined since the mid-session peak, which may indicate a lack of follow-through from bullish participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing low (0.4520) and high (0.4958), key levels are currently at 0.4690 (38.2%), 0.4830 (61.8%), and 0.4940 (78.6%). Price has tested the 61.8% level multiple times and appears to be consolidating near that area. A breakout above 0.4940 could target the 0.5040 extension level, but a failure to hold above 0.4830 may see a retest of the 0.4690 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described in the additional input is based on MACD signal crossovers—specifically golden and dead crosses. However, due to an issue with the data source recognizing the symbol YBUSDC, the necessary MACD data could not be retrieved automatically. This likely stems from a mismatch in the ticker format expected by the backtesting engine. To proceed, the symbol must be confirmed or the data manually provided in a compatible format (e.g., CSV or JSON). Once the correct symbol or data file is available, the MACD crossover signals can be extracted, and the backtest can be run from 2022-01-01 to the current date. This approach would allow for assessing the strategy's viability over time in the YBUSDC pair.