Market Overview for YieldBasis/USDC (YBUSDC) as of 2025-11-09

Summary
• YBUSDC traded in a bearish trend overnight, closing 0.58% below the previous day’s 12:00 ET level.
• A sharp selloff began around 03:15 ET, breaking below key support at 0.5431 with no immediate buyers.
• Volume surged during the sell-off, confirming bearish momentum and signaling increased distribution.

The YieldBasis/USDC (YBUSDC) pair opened at 0.5523 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08 and traded as high as 0.5928 before closing at 0.5331 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09. Total trading volume reached 303,159.7 and turnover totaled approximately 162,109 USDC. The pair experienced a clear bearish shift overnight, driven by a strong breakdown below 0.5450 and sustained selling pressure through early morning hours.

On the 15-minute chart, YBUSDC formed a series of bearish candlestick patterns, including a dark cloud cover and a hanging man, particularly between 02:00 ET and 04:45 ET. These formations, combined with a breakdown below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggest a continuation of the bearish bias. The 50-period moving average currently sits at 0.5470, acting as a dynamic overhead resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 28–30 during the early morning sell-off, indicating oversold territory. However, the RSI has shown little recovery since the breakdown, suggesting limited buying interest and a possible continuation of the downtrend. The MACD crossed below the signal line around 04:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, with prices trading near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish volatility environment.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.5928 high to the 0.5331 low show that current price action is testing the 61.8% level at 0.5495. A close above this level could trigger a short-term rebound toward the 0.5550–0.5600 zone. Conversely, a break below 0.5331 could target 0.5290 and then 0.5250. Volume remains elevated during the selloff, and there is no divergence between price and turnover, which supports the idea that the bearish trend is still in control.

The pair may remain under pressure in the next 24 hours as bears attempt to confirm a new short-term low. A breakout above 0.5500 could signal a reversal, but this appears unlikely unless volume and RSI show a strong recovery. Investors should watch for a close below 0.5300 as a key bearish confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis
In order to develop a backtesting strategy for YBUSDC, we would ideally use the RSI indicator to identify potential entry points during periods of oversold conditions. A basic RSI-based strategy could involve entering a long position when RSI dips below 30 and exiting when it rises above 50, holding for a 5-day period. However, due to the current limitations in retrieving RSI data for YBUSDC, we cannot run this strategy directly. If you are open to testing the RSI-oversold approach using a more widely supported pair (e.g., BTC/USDC or ETH/USDC), we can provide a backtest from 2022-01-01 to the present. Confirming the correct ticker or switching to a similar asset would enable us to proceed with the backtest analysis.