Market Overview for Yield Guild Games/Tether (YGGUSDT)

• YGGUSDT traded in a tight range with 0.1802 as key support and 0.1837 as resistance
• Price closed near session lows after a sharp mid-day rejection
• RSI showed overbought conditions followed by a bearish divergence
• Volume spiked during the 03:45–04:45 ET consolidation
• Bollinger Bands indicate moderate volatility with price near the midline

The YGGUSDT pair opened at 0.1790 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.1837 and as low as 0.1764 before closing at 0.1740 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume across the 24-hour period reached 12,103,900.7, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,160,000 (based on trade amounts). The price action reflected a bearish consolidation into the early hours of the next day.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bearish reversal pattern—a hanging man—around 0.1837 before retracing lower. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared in the 17:15–18:00 ET timeframe (UTC+), confirming a potential shift in sentiment. The 0.1802 level acted as a magnet for multiple bounces, while 0.1837 served as a short-term ceiling. A key support zone developed between 0.1764 and 0.1771, with price consolidating in that range during the last 6 hours of the period. The structure suggests that a break below 0.1764 could trigger further bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs converged near 0.1806–0.1810 in the mid-day hours but diverged again as price moved lower. The 20SMA is now below the 50SMA, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are both above the current price, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours of 2025-10-04, with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum waned. RSI reached an overbought level of 68 near 0.1837 but then declined sharply to 34, indicating a potential oversold condition. A bearish divergence between RSI and price was observed in the 03:45–04:45 ET window, suggesting further downside could be in play.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction during the 01:30–03:30 ET period, suggesting a consolidation phase. Price then broke out of the upper band briefly at 0.1837, but failed to sustain the move. In the latter half of the session, price moved within the lower half of the bands, indicating a bearish bias. Volatility appears to be stabilizing with price trading near the midline of the bands at 0.1740.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:15–18:45 ET timeframe as price declined from 0.1837 to 0.1777, signaling a rejection of higher levels. Turnover also increased during the consolidation phase (03:45–04:45 ET), coinciding with a pullback in price and a bearish divergence in RSI. The volume profile shows confirmation of bearish momentum in the latter half of the session, with no significant accumulation observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 0.1837–0.1764 swing, the 61.8% level is located at 0.1786. Price has tested this level multiple times over the past 6 hours, suggesting a potential area of interest. The 38.2% retracement at 0.1796 also appears to be a short-term resistance level. A break below 0.1764 could target the 0.1736 Fibonacci extension level, with further risk below 0.1720.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on detecting key retracement levels combined with RSI divergence and volume confirmation to identify high-probability short-term reversal points. In the case of YGGUSDT, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.1786 and a bearish RSI divergence in the 03:45–04:45 ET window align with the criteria for a potential short entry. A stop loss could be placed above the 0.1796 level, with a target near 0.1764. The strategy’s success would depend on volatility staying within a moderate range and price continuing to consolidate in the 0.1764–0.1771 range.