Market Overview for Yield Guild Games/Tether (YGGUSDT): 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price opened at $0.1107, traded between $0.1077 and $0.1137, closing at $0.1109.
• Volume declined by 24.6% from peak at 07:15 ET, indicating reduced urgency.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 22:45 ET, but failed to sustain gains.
• RSI hit 30 at 14:45 ET, suggesting oversold conditions, but recovery was shallow.
• Volatility expanded between 01:15–04:30 ET, with price swinging 1.5% on high turnover.

Price, Volume and Trend

YGGUSDT opened at $0.1107 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1109 one day later, with an intraday high of $0.1137 and a low of $0.1077. The 24-hour volume totaled 8,927,937 contracts, while the notional turnover was approximately $988,741, based on the weighted average of the close prices. Price action appears to oscillate within a defined channel between $0.1085 and $0.1137, with no clear directional bias emerging in the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance is evident around $0.1137, where three 15-minute candles capped at this level. Below, support is found at $0.1085, which has been tested and held three times. A small bullish engulfing pattern formed at 22:45 ET, but it failed to extend past $0.1137, indicating resistance at that level. A doji appeared at 02:15 ET, suggesting indecision after a sharp rally from $0.1121 to $0.1127.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) is at $0.1111 and the 50-period MA at $0.1113, with price currently near the 20-period line, suggesting a potential near-term equilibrium. On a daily time frame, the 50-day MA is at $0.1104, the 100-day MA at $0.1111, and the 200-day MA at $0.1119, with price currently consolidating just below the 200-day line, a potential psychological support.

Momentum and Indicators

The 12/26 MACD crossed the zero line at 01:15 ET, confirming a shift to a bullish phase. However, the histogram has since flattened, indicating weakening momentum. RSI dropped to 30 at 14:45 ET, signaling oversold conditions, but the recovery stalled at 50, failing to confirm strong buying interest. Bollinger Bands expanded between 01:15–04:30 ET, reflecting increased volatility, with price briefly touching the upper band at $0.1137 before retreating.

Volume and Turnover

Volume peaked at 07:15 ET with 334,939 contracts, coinciding with a sharp price move to $0.1127. However, volume declined by 24.6% over the next 90 minutes, suggesting weakening conviction. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, rising to a peak of $37,154 at 01:30 ET before tapering off. A divergence between price and volume was observed between 02:30–03:00 ET, as price rose from $0.1121 to $0.1131 on waning volume, indicating potential exhaustion in the uptrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from $0.1085 to $0.1137 has retraced to the 50% level at $0.1111, with price currently consolidating around this area. On the daily chart, a prior swing from $0.1085 to $0.1137 has retraced to $0.1113, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci level. The 61.8% level is at $0.1118, a potential near-term resistance if the current consolidation breaks higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-Oversold, 3-day-hold strategy applied to YGGUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13 yielded a total return of +11.41% with an annualized return of 14.54%. However, the strategy was marked by a significant max drawdown of -71.32% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.29, indicating a weak risk-adjusted return profile. While the average trade was profitable at +0.91%, losses tended to be severe at -6.4%. The 3-day exit rule occasionally captured rebounds but left the strategy vulnerable during deeper corrections, highlighting the need for tighter risk controls, such as stop-loss or adaptive exits based on RSI recovery.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see renewed volatility if price breaks above $0.1137 or below $0.1085. Investors should remain cautious given the wide historical drawdowns and the absence of a clear trend.