Market Overview: Yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) traded lower, closing near a key support level after volatile 24-hour action.
• Momentum shifted downward, with RSI signaling oversold conditions and MACD bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening during the morning ET selloff.
• Volume spiked during the midday ET dump, though price-volume divergence emerged in the final hours.
• Fibonacci levels at 5189 and 5281 may offer near-term relevance ahead of further directional moves.

24-Hour Price Action Summary

Yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) opened at $5304 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $5357 before collapsing sharply during the early hours of October 10. The pair reached an intraday low of $5094 by 15:45 ET, closing at $5162 at 12:00 ET on October 10. Total volume traded across 24 hours amounted to 172.91308 YFI, while total turnover reached $880,967.08 in USDT terms. The session was marked by a sharp reversal from a morning rally to a sustained bearish bias, with price falling into the lower third of the 24-hour range.

Structure & Key Levels

The price action displayed multiple bearish engulfing patterns between 04:00 and 08:00 ET, signaling aggressive short-term bear pressure. A doji formed near $5238 during a critical pullback at 05:15 ET, suggesting temporary indecision. Key support levels include the 24-hour low of $5094, Fibonacci 61.8% at $5189, and a prior swing support at $5231. Resistance remains weak near $5268 and $5288, where bearish failures have occurred multiple times. The pair appears to be in a short-term bear channel, with a lower boundary near $5094 and an upper edge at $5357.

Moving Averages and Trend Direction

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs have been bearish, with price closing below both for most of the session. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day SMAs are in a negative slope, while the 200-day SMA remains a distant, non-relevant level. The short-term trend appears to have broken decisively lower, though the daily chart may still be consolidating within a larger range. Traders may watch the 50-day SMA as a potential trigger for further bearish action.

Volatility and Momentum Analysis

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the morning sell-off, with price dropping below the lower band for a brief period before stabilizing. RSI reached oversold territory at 23, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, though the momentum has not shown signs of reversing. The MACD crossed below zero with bearish divergence, reinforcing the bearish bias. The negative divergence between RSI and price highlights a possible exhaustion in the selloff, though this may also indicate a continuation pattern if volume fails to confirm a rebound.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the $5094 low to the $5357 high show that the current close at $5162 aligns with the 23.6% retracement level. A retest of the 38.2% retracement at $5240 could provide a near-term pivot point. Traders should be cautious of false breakouts around $5250 and $5290, as volume has historically failed to confirm these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish divergence in MACD and the oversold RSI conditions, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short trade triggered at a close below the 50-period SMA with a stop above the recent swing high at $5268. The initial target could be the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $5189, with a secondary target at the 24-hour low of $5094. This approach would require volume confirmation for the initial short entry and divergence in the RSI as a signal of momentum exhaustion. The strategy would also need to account for volatility expansion by using a wider stop during high-volume periods, as seen between 15:30 and 16:00 ET.