Market Overview: Yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary

Summary

• Price declined from $4966 to $4927, with a 24-hour low of $4884 and a high of $5063.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum mid-day, with a brief bounce late in the session.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 23:00, while volume remained moderate.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating a breakout possibility ahead.

Structure & Formations

Yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) opened at $4966 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4927 one day later. The pair experienced a bearish bias throughout the session, punctuated by a sharp drop to $4884 at 15:00 ET. A key support area emerged between $4900–$4930, where price found temporary stability. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed between 17:00 and 17:15 ET, confirming a reversal after a brief bullish attempt. A doji candle at 22:45 ET signaled indecision, though price resumed its downward trajectory afterward.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the price is above the 50 and 100-day averages but below the 200-day average, indicating a mixed short-term and long-term bias. The 200-day MA remains a critical psychological level at around $4850–$4900, with a possible test expected in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line mid-day, reinforcing the bearish move. RSI dropped below 30 at 15:00 ET, entering oversold territory briefly, though price failed to bounce from that level. This divergence suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend. The RSI remains in the 30–40 range, signaling moderate oversold conditions, but without a strong bullish reversal yet.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke out of a contracted Bollinger Band around 22:00 ET, widening the band significantly. Price has remained outside the upper and lower bands for much of the session, indicating high volatility. The current level of $4927 is just below the lower band, suggesting a possible continuation of the trend or a test of the $4900 support level in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Total volume was 337.59579 units, with a 24-hour turnover of $1.64 million (using 4927 as the closing price). Volume increased significantly after 22:00 ET, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, price action failed to follow through on the volume surge, indicating some internal weakness. Divergence between price and volume is a cautionary sign for a potential pullback or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing (from $4990 to $4884) suggest critical levels at 61.8% ($4923) and 78.6% ($4903). The daily chart shows a key retracement level at $4900–$4920, where the price has bounced twice in the past week. A break below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward $4850.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest tested a short-bias strategy based on bearish MACD divergences over the past 3.5 years. The results, however, were underwhelming: a -40.15% total return and a -8.60% annualized return indicate the strategy was unprofitable under the given conditions. The maximum drawdown of 42.02% suggests significant risk exposure, while the negative Sharpe ratio and large average loss point to poor risk-adjusted returns. Although a few short-term profitable trades occurred, the overall trend was bearish, with no clear edge in timing or execution. Given the recent price action and volume patterns, it is possible that this backtest aligns with current conditions, especially with RSI and MACD still in bearish territory. The strategy may benefit from refinements such as tighter stop-loss levels or longer holding periods.