Market Overview: XVGUSDT Daily Price Action and Volatility Shift

• XVGUSDT opened at $0.00796, reached $0.009323, and closed near $0.008.
• Price consolidated in a volatile range with no clear directional bias.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the late ET session.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while volume remained mixed.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, signaling rising volatility.

Verge/Tether (XVGUSDT) opened at $0.00796 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.009323, and closed the 24-hour period at $0.008 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The total traded volume was approximately 372,921,958 XVG, with a notional turnover of $2,928,491. Price action was marked by sharp intra-day swings and a late session pullback.

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around the $0.00928–$0.008888 range, signaling a potential short-term reversal. The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower in the final hours, with the 50 SMA crossing below the 20 SMA, indicating bearish momentum. While the 50/100/200 daily SMAs remain in a flat to slightly bullish alignment, the short-term divergence raises caution.

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the last 4 hours, with negative histogram bars. RSI dipped below 30, entering oversold territory but without a clear rebound. This suggests that although the pair is undervalued at the moment, a bounce may be limited without a strong bullish catalyst. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the afternoon, showing heightened volatility, and the price closed just below the 1σ level, suggesting potential consolidation ahead.

Volume spiked during the $0.008888–$0.009323 surge but faded in the last 5 hours, which may indicate a waning bullish impulse. Turnover and volume were closely aligned during the peak, with no notable divergences. A key support appears forming at $0.0082–$0.0083, while resistance is near the $0.0087–$0.0088 range.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent swing from $0.00796 to $0.009323 show 38.2% at $0.00865 and 61.8% at $0.00819. Price closed just above the 61.8% level, indicating that a break below this threshold could signal further bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the past week’s range sits near $0.00785, a potential key level for near-term action.

The backtest hypothesis leverages the short-term bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold condition, suggesting a potential bounce between $0.0081 and $0.0083 could offer a risk-reward setup. A long entry could be considered with a stop loss below $0.00795 and a target near $0.0086, in alignment with the 38.2% retracement level. The strategy would also monitor volume spikes to confirm directional bias before entering.