Market Overview for XRPUSDT on 2025-09-19

• XRP/Tether declines by 4.6% over the last 24 hours, breaking below key psychological level of $3.10.
• High volatility seen in the last 6 hours with a sharp selloff from $3.11 to $3.02, driven by a large volume spike.
• RSI in oversold territory suggests potential for short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains strong.
• Volume and turnover are negatively divergent from price, signaling caution for further downside.
• A bullish engulfing pattern may form if price recovers above the $3.08 level with confirmation by volume.

XRPUSDT opened at $3.1235 at 12:00 ET−1, peaked at $3.1248, and fell to a 24-hour low of $2.9887 before closing at $3.0103 as of 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 15,506,489.4 units, while notional turnover amounted to $47,696,069.91. The pair is under pressure, with a sharp drop forming a bearish continuation pattern.

Structure & Formations

Price action reveals a clear breakdown from a key consolidation range around $3.10. A sharp bearish trend took hold after 19:45 ET, with a candle closing near its low at $3.0978 and continuing lower into the early hours of 2025-09-19. A bearish flag pattern has emerged between $3.11 and $3.02, supported by declining volume during the decline. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $3.11–$3.08 during the 23:30–00:00 ET window. A doji appeared at $3.084, suggesting a potential short-term pause in the decline.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart have diverged significantly from price, with the 50-period line below the 20-period line, reinforcing bearish momentum. The daily 50/200 EMA crossover is negative, with the 50 EMA below the 200 EMA, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong rebound occurs above $3.12.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remains negative, with both the signal and line moving lower. This confirms sustained bearish momentum. The RSI has entered oversold territory around 29, indicating potential for a near-term bounce. However, divergence between RSI and price during the 05:30–07:00 ET window suggests caution for a bearish continuation even after a short-term rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has remained well below the lower Bollinger Band for the last 10 hours, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A sharp contraction in the band width occurred from 21:00 to 22:00 ET, followed by a large breakout to the downside. Price remains outside the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the trend unless a strong bullish reversal develops.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has remained elevated throughout the bearish phase, especially during the 19:45–20:15 ET window, confirming the strength of the selloff. Notional turnover, however, peaked at $1,460,856.07 during the 04:15–04:30 ET window but did not match the volume-based bearish confirmation, indicating a potential divergence. Investors should watch for volume confirmation on any upward bounce as a key indicator of market sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the swing high at $3.1248 to the swing low at $2.9887 show key levels at $3.056 (38.2%) and $3.023 (61.8%). Price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level, indicating potential support. A close below $3.023 could open the door to the next leg down toward $2.98, the 78.6% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy using a 20-period EMA crossover with RSI below 30 and volume confirmation on the 15-minute chart could yield meaningful signals. If a bullish engulfing pattern forms above the 38.2% retracement level with a surge in volume, a long entry could be considered with a target at $3.10. Stop-loss placement would be below the 61.8% level at $3.023 to protect against further downside. This approach balances risk management with potential reward in a volatile, bearish environment.