Market Overview: XRPJPY 24-Hour Analysis (2025-11-08)

• XRPJPY traded between 341.9 and 364.32, closing at 357.94 after a 15-hour consolidation.
• Momentum shifted post-19:45 ET with a 2.6% rally and a 2.4% pullback before a final 0.4% recovery.
• Volume increased 38% in the final 6 hours, with 3.5% of daily volume in the last candle.

Opening Narrative

XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) opened at 342.97 on 2025-11-07 17:00 ET and reached a high of 364.32 before closing at 357.94 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The pair traded within a range of 341.9 to 364.32, with a 24-hour volume of approximately 2,168,386.8 units and an estimated turnover of around 765 million JPY.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured a bullish breakout above the 355.0 resistance level, followed by a consolidation phase. Key support appears at 349.0–350.0, while resistance is clustered near 357.0 and 361.0. A Bullish Engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET, followed by a Doji near 361.49, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA at 19:45 ET, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period EMA remains above 200-day SMA, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive around 20:00 ET, aligning with the price rally. RSI rose to overbought territory (75–78) by 19:45 ET, but a pullback brought it back into the 55–58 range, indicating reduced momentum and a possible continuation of sideways consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased notably after 19:45 ET, with price reaching the upper band before retracing to the middle band. A contraction occurred between 18:00–19:30 ET, followed by an expansion that coincided with the 2.6% rally. Price appears to be testing the upper band again, suggesting the possibility of a breakout or rejection.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively steady until 18:45 ET, after which it increased sharply, peaking at ~89,065 units during the 20:30–21:00 ET window. The final 15-minute candle (11:45–12:00 ET) had 3.5% of the total daily volume but only a 0.4% price move, signaling a possible exhaustion phase as buyers may be running out of steam.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 19:45 ET high of 364.32 and the 20:45 ET low of 355.21, key retracement levels align with the 357.0 (38.2%) and 359.5 (23.6%) levels. These levels appear to be critical for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical patterns observed today—particularly the Bullish Engulfing and Doji—highlight the relevance of candlestick signals in defining potential entry points. A backtesting strategy based on Bullish Engulfing patterns was implemented over the past 3 years using close-to-close holding periods. The strategy involved identifying buy signals at daily close prices when a Bullish Engulfing pattern was detected. Positions were held for one trading day and then closed. The resulting performance metrics—such as CAGR, win-rate, average return per trade, and max drawdown—are encapsulated in the interactive backtest dashboard. This approach allows investors to assess the historical profitability and risk profile of such a pattern-based strategy in the XRPJPY market.