Market Overview for XRPJPY (2025-11-14)

Summary
• XRPJPY declined sharply from 373.82 to 348.06 during the 24-hour period.
• Price formed a bearish continuation pattern with key support at 352.6.
• Volume surged after the 04:45 ET selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion, highlighting high volatility.

XRPJPY opened at 372.51 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and fell to an intraday low of 348.06, closing at 352.60 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 4.05 million, with notional turnover amounting to ¥1.45 billion over the 24-hour window.

The price action suggests a strong bearish trend, with consistent selling pressure following a sharp breakdown from 373.82 to 352.60. The formation of a bearish continuation pattern, reinforced by declining volume at key resistance levels, indicates a lack of buyers above 363.45. A notable doji appeared near 358.42, hinting at potential exhaustion of the downward move, though support at 352.60 appears to be holding.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price below both the 20-period and 50-period MA lines, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. The 200-day MA on the daily chart is likely acting as a dynamic ceiling, with price currently below it. MACD remains negative with a narrowing histogram, suggesting momentum may be slowing slightly, while RSI dipped into oversold territory (near 30), offering a potential near-term bounce scenario. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly post-04:45 ET, reflecting heightened volatility, and price appears to be consolidating near the lower band.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 373.82 to 348.06 swing suggest 352.60 aligns with the 61.8% level, offering strong short-term support. A break below could trigger a test of the 348.06 low.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy involves using a 14-period RSI on the XRPJPY pair, with trades initiated when RSI dips below 30 (oversold condition) and closed after three calendar trading days. During the 24-hour period analyzed, RSI briefly entered oversold territory around 352.60, potentially signaling a short-term entry point for longs. The exit at 352.60 appears to be within the three-day window, offering a modest bounce scenario. Given the current bearish momentum, this strategy may struggle in a sustained downtrend, but could capture rebounds from key support levels.