Market Overview for XRPJPY on 2025-09-23

• XRPJPY formed a bullish recovery after a sharp selloff, with a bearish candle at the session low.
• Volatility expanded through a 24-hour range of 4.67 Yen, with notable volume spikes in both early and late ET hours.
• MACD and RSI suggest mixed momentum, with RSI near overbought at the close despite a late-day pullback.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion in late ET, with price near the upper band at the 24-hour close.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 17:00 ET, followed by a potential bullish reversal at 03:30 ET.

The XRP/Yen pair opened at 423.88 JPY on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 426.91 JPY before closing at 426.50 JPY at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The 24-hour volume totaled 749,928.0 units, with a notional turnover of JPY 313,750,845.30. The session saw a mix of bullish and bearish impulses, with price action suggesting indecision between continuation and reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support at 419.76 JPY twice during the session before recovering. A bearish engulfing pattern at 17:00 ET signaled potential exhaustion in the short-term downtrend. Later, a reversal at 03:30 ET hinted at short-term buyers stepping in. A long-legged doji formed near 05:30 ET, suggesting a possible pivot in the 4-hour range. The 426.50 JPY close appears to sit just below a potential minor resistance level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, with the 50SMA acting as a dynamic support at 424.30 JPY. On the daily chart, the 50DMA appears to offer resistance at 425.0 JPY, while the 200DMA remains a strong support at 419.0 JPY. Price may test the 50DMA in the coming hours for directional confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line in the last two hours, indicating a potential shift in momentum toward the bullish side. RSI reached 68 at the close, nearing overbought territory, which could indicate a pause or consolidation phase. Divergence in the last three candles suggests momentum may not yet be fully aligned with price.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the last 4 hours of the session, with price closing near the upper band at 426.5 JPY. This suggests a period of increased volatility and potential exhaustion in the near term. A pullback toward the 20-period moving average could see a test of the middle band at 424.9 JPY as a potential pivot point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning and late ET hours, with turnover surging after 03:30 ET when the 422.16 JPY level was retested. While price closed higher, volume failed to confirm a strong bullish breakout, suggesting caution from large participants. Divergence between volume and price during the 05:00–07:00 ET period highlights the potential for a reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

On a 15-minute swing from 421.35 JPY to 426.91 JPY, the 38.2% retracement level sits at 424.98 JPY and was tested twice. The 61.8% level at 423.11 JPY acted as support in the early session. On the daily chart, a retest of the 38.2% retracement level at 424.40 JPY could provide further clarity on near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry on a bullish reversal candle forming at the 20-period moving average, confirmed by a RSI crossover above 50. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent bearish engulfing pattern’s low at 421.68 JPY, while a target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 423.11 JPY. The strategy would aim to capture short-term countertrend moves during periods of high volatility. This aligns with the observed price structure and momentum conditions.