Market Overview for XRPJPY on 2025-09-18

• XRP/Yen rallied sharply from 440.50 to 463.12 Yen amid strong volume on the 24-hour chart.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 440–443.26 before breaking higher, indicating potential buying momentum.
• RSI reached 68 late in the session, suggesting overbought conditions as price approached 463.12.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 15-minute chart, with a 2.4% move in a single 90-minute window.
• Turnover spiked during the 18:45–19:15 ET window, confirming the breakout with increased conviction.

XRP/Yen opened at 442.87 Yen on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 461.54 Yen on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 463.12 and a low of 440.50. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,211,303 contracts, and notional turnover reached 538,502,956 Yen.

Structure & Formations

XRPJPY exhibited strong bear-to-bull sentiment reversal patterns during the 18:30–19:30 ET window, including a bullish engulfing pattern from 440.33 to 443.86. This was followed by a sharp 90-minute move from 440.50 to 447.92, confirming a short-term reversal. A key resistance level appears to be forming at 457.75–458.10 Yen, where price has tested multiple times and bounced. A critical support level now lies at 449.16–451.51, following a consolidation phase after the breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed in a bullish alignment during the 23:45–00:30 ET window, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. For the daily chart, the 50DMA crossed above the 100DMA in a golden cross pattern, indicating strong medium-term bullish momentum. The 200DMA remains well below current price levels, offering further bullish confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line during the 19:30–20:00 ET window, forming a bullish crossover. The histogram showed expanding positive divergence, aligning with the rally. The RSI reached a peak of 68 at 11:45 ET, suggesting overbought conditions. While not extreme, it indicates caution for near-term pullbacks. A divergence between RSI and price was observed during the 05:45–06:00 ET window, hinting at a potential slowdown in bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 22:30–23:00 ET window, reflecting heightened volatility during the 451.51–454.31 rally. Price then remained inside the upper band for over 3 hours, showing strong conviction in the upward trend. A contraction phase occurred during the 05:45–06:00 ET window, indicating potential for a breakout or reversal in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 18:30–19:30 ET window, reaching 84,532.9 contracts, and coincided with a 4.2% price move from 440.33 to 443.86. Notional turnover spiked to over 38.8 million Yen during the 03:15–03:30 ET period, confirming the 457.75–457.46 move. A divergence was noted between volume and price during the 05:30–05:45 ET window, where price continued to rise on diminishing volume, hinting at reduced momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 440.50 to 463.12, the 61.8% retracement level is at 454.26 and the 78.6% at 460.26. Price held above the 61.8% level during the 05:30–05:45 ET window, indicating strong near-term support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the prior bearish leg is at 456.10, which has acted as a key pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a combination of the 20SMA/50SMA crossover and RSI divergence could be effective in capturing the bullish momentum seen during this session. For example, entries could be triggered on a 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA, with an additional filter of RSI below 40 to confirm oversold conditions. A stop-loss could be placed below the 449.16 support level, with a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (460.26 Yen). The recent 15-minute MACD and RSI dynamics also suggest that using a divergence-based exit strategy might improve risk-adjusted returns during consolidation phases.

XRPJPY appears to be in a strong bullish phase driven by increased volume and technical alignment on both short- and medium-term charts. However, traders should watch for potential pullbacks as overbought conditions develop and Fibonacci levels near 460.26 Yen come into play. A breakdown below 449.16 could signal a reversal, so risk management remains essential for the next 24 hours.