Market Overview for XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) - 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• XRPJPY dropped to 356.09 before rallying 4.1% in the final 3 hours.
• Volatility expanded as price broke out of a 24-hour consolidation range.
• Volume surged near close, confirming the breakout.
• RSI and MACD diverged mid-day but realigned near closing.
• 364.33 support tested; 379.52 is a new key resistance level.

The XRPJPY pair opened at 364.43 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, dropped to 355.52 during the day, and closed at 379.52 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 2,140,614.3 units, with a notional turnover of 793,829,823.90 JPY. The price action featured a sharp reversal in the final 3 hours, breaking above a prior consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price tested the 364.33 level twice during the session, with a bullish engulfing pattern emerging on the candle ending at 361.37. A large bearish candle (356.09) confirmed a short-term pivot. The late-session bullish breakout from this range, with a doji at 364.83 and a strong green candle at 379.52, signals a potential shift in short-term sentiment. Key support levels at 364.33, 360.82, and 356.09 remain intact, while resistance at 379.52 and 380.23 is now in focus.

Structure Highlights

The 356.09 low acted as a critical floor, with volume spiking during the rebound. A 380.23 close suggests bulls have re-established control, but further confirmation above this level will be necessary for a sustained rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged around the 362.84–364.15 range, aligning with the consolidation phase. The 20-EMA crossed the 50-EMA during the final 45 minutes, confirming a bullish crossover. On a daily basis, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs are aligned below the 379.52 close, suggesting the recent move is in line with the broader trend.

MA Interpretation

The 20-EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart has historically been a high-probability entry signal in range-breaking environments. With price now above the 20-EMA, traders may look to key resistance levels for potential long setups, especially if the 380.23 level is cleared with volume confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line just before the 2025-10-12 15:00 ET time, signaling a bullish momentum shift. RSI, which had been in oversold territory at 28.4 during the 2025-10-12 01:30 ET low, rose sharply to 62.3 at close, suggesting momentum is gaining. The divergence between price and RSI during the 2025-10-12 03:00–04:00 ET period was resolved by the end of the session, favoring the bulls.

Momentum Outlook

A sustained close above 379.52 with RSI above 50 and positive MACD divergence could trigger additional buying interest. A retest of 371.38 (the 38.2% Fib level of the 356.09–379.52 move) would offer a potential entry for longs with a stop just below 364.33.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened significantly during the final 3 hours of the session, with price moving outside the upper Bollinger Band at 379.52. The bands had been constricting during the consolidation phase, indicating a potential breakout scenario. The close at 379.52 suggests that traders are pricing in a higher near-term volatility regime.

Volatility Signal

The breakout from a narrow band may signal the beginning of a trend. Traders should monitor the upper band for resistance and the lower band for potential support in the event of a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 2025-10-12 09:45 ET and again at 15:15 ET, both coinciding with key price levels. The final candle before the 12:00 ET close showed 141,075.2 units traded, the highest in the session, supporting the bullish breakout. Turnover spiked at the 379.52 level, confirming the strength of the move.

Volume Dynamics

Volume at the breakout confirmed a strong shift in market sentiment. Divergences were minimal, indicating that price and volume action aligned during the key price moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 356.09–379.52 move aligns with key Fibonacci levels. The 38.2% retracement at 371.38 and the 61.8% at 367.76 have been tested and rejected in the past. The close at 379.52 is near the 100% extension, suggesting that the move could extend further if bullish momentum is maintained.

Fib Retracement Setup

A retest of the 371.38 level could offer a strategic entry for longs, with a stop below 364.33. The 367.76 level may act as a short-term resistance, but a strong close above that could confirm the extension of the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could involve long entries on bullish 20-EMA crossovers with RSI above 40 and volume confirmation, targeting the 380.23–382.4 range with a stop-loss at 364.33. Given the late-day breakout and confirmation of the 379.52 close, this setup appears to have high alignment with the observed price behavior and could be used to test the efficacy of trend-following strategies in a volatile, short-term environment.