Market Overview: XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) 24-Hour Action

• Price fell 2.7% over 24 hours, closing at 436.4 Yen after a sharp selloff post-16:00 ET.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, signaling potential near-term buying interest.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price touching the lower band.
• Volume surged during the 15-minute selloff at 14:15–15:45 ET, confirming bearish momentum.
• A large bearish engulfing candle marked the 15:15–15:30 ET time frame, reinforcing the downtrend.

The XRPJPY pair opened at 455.34 Yen on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at 436.4 Yen on October 7 at the same time, with a high of 458.16 and a low of 434.55. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,116,411.0 lots, with notional turnover at ¥569,532,462.15. A strong bearish bias emerged as the price broke below key support levels after forming a bearish engulfing pattern and a deep selloff in the afternoon ET hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed multiple bearish candlestick patterns, including a large engulfing candle at 15:15–15:30 ET and a long lower shadow at 16:00 ET. These patterns suggest short-covering or renewed bear pressure. Key support levels were identified at 440.0, 435.0, and 430.0, while resistance remained untested during this period. The breakdown below 440.0 triggered a test of 434.55, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages acted as bearish guides, with price staying well below both. On a daily timeframe, the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA (death cross), reinforcing the bearish bias. Price closed below the 100-day MA as well, confirming a weak near-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved into negative territory and remained below the signal line, signaling sustained bear momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, this should not be interpreted as a reversal without confirmation above key support levels or divergence in volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening and price closing near the lower band. This suggests heightened market anxiety and potential for a pullback, but without a definitive reversal candle, continuation into lower bands remains a risk.

Volume & TurnoverVolume spiked during the 14:15–15:45 ET window, aligning with the sharp decline to 434.55. Notional turnover during this period was unusually high, confirming the bearish conviction. A divergence between price and volume in the final hour of the report, however, could hint at a slowdown in the sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level aligned closely with 440.0, which acted as a key level during the breakdown. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend sits at 448.50. A retest of this level could confirm bear strength if rejected.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy involves a trend-following approach using the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart. A long entry is triggered when the 20 MA crosses above the 50 MA, and an exit is triggered when the 20 MA crosses below the 50 MA. Short entries occur with the opposite. This strategy would have missed most of the bearish move in the last 24 hours, as the 50 MA remained above the 20 MA. However, if applied to the 24-hour window with a stop loss just above the 448.50–450.00 range, it could have captured a short trade during the selloff. A refinement to include RSI or Bollinger Band divergence for confirmation may improve risk-reward outcomes.