Market Overview for XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) on 2025-10-25

• XRP/Yen traded higher, closing at 392.69 Yen after a strong 24-hour rally from 379.20 Yen.
• Volume surged significantly above average, with notable accumulation above 385.00 Yen.
• RSI remained well within healthy territory, indicating momentum favors the bulls.
• Bollinger Bands signaled increasing volatility, with price near the upper band.
• No clear bearish reversal patterns emerged despite intraday pullbacks.

The XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) pair opened on 2025-10-24 at 379.20 Yen and rose steadily throughout the 24-hour window, peaking at 399.98 Yen before settling at 392.69 Yen at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-25. The pair saw a total volume of 2,325,331.2 units and a notional turnover of 909,125,172.3 Yen. Price action indicated strong bullish momentum, with a clear upward bias across most of the day.

On the 15-minute chart, key resistance appears to have formed at 395.00 Yen, where price experienced several rejection attempts before surging higher. Support levels were clearly seen at 385.00 Yen and 380.00 Yen, with price testing these areas multiple times but rebounding sharply. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 06:00 ET, suggesting a short-term continuation of the upward trend. However, the doji near 399.00 Yen hints at potential exhaustion of buying pressure in the near term.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in bullish alignment, with the 20-period line above the 50-period line, reinforcing the upward trend. The MACD histogram showed expanding positive momentum throughout the morning and early afternoon, peaking just before 05:00 ET. However, a slight contraction in the histogram after 07:00 ET suggests a temporary loss of momentum, though still within a bullish context. The signal line crossed above the histogram at several intervals, signaling potential short-term overextension that traders may watch closely for a pullback or breakout.

RSI and Volatility Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings remained well below the overbought threshold, peaking at 68.9 during the morning hours, suggesting that the rally is still within a reasonable range. Bollinger Bands showed a steady expansion in volatility, with price frequently touching or surpassing the upper band between 04:00 ET and 08:00 ET. This volatility expansion suggests increasing participation and could indicate either a continuation of the trend or an impending reversal if price fails to close above the 400.00 Yen psychological level.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high to the key support at 380.00 Yen revealed 61.8% and 78.6% retracements near 394.00 Yen and 397.00 Yen, respectively. Price briefly approached the 78.6% level but lacked the volume to surpass it. This may signal caution in approaching the upper Fibonacci levels, with a potential pullback to the 385.00 Yen support zone possible if volume fails to sustain further upside.

The volume profile was heavily skewed to the bullish side, with a significant portion of the 24-hour volume concentrated in the 385.00–397.00 Yen range. Turnover spiked notably during the 02:00–06:00 ET window, aligning with a sharp price increase. The correlation between rising price and expanding volume suggests strong conviction from institutional or large retail buyers. However, a slight divergence between price and volume emerged in the late afternoon, particularly around 16:00 ET, when price dipped slightly while volume remained high. This may hint at profit-taking or order flow fragmentation ahead of the next breakout attempt.

Looking ahead, XRP/Yen is likely to test the 400.00 Yen psychological level, with a successful close above it potentially extending the bullish trend. However, traders should remain cautious of overextended positions and the potential for a consolidation phase if buyers fail to hold above 395.00 Yen. A breakdown below 385.00 Yen would introduce bearish risks but appears unlikely in the short term, given current momentum and order flow dynamics.

Backtest Hypothesis

The tested RSI(14) overbought strategy failed to generate any signals over the 2022–2025 period for XRPJPY, as the daily RSI never crossed above 70. This outcome aligns with the recent 24-hour data, where RSI peaked just below 69, reinforcing the pair’s generally moderate momentum profile. The lack of overbought conditions suggests that either the 14-period RSI is too insensitive for this market or the JPY quote currency dampens volatility compared to USD pairs. A possible refinement would involve using a shorter RSI period (e.g., RSI(7)) or adjusting the threshold to 65–60. Such changes would increase signal frequency while maintaining risk control, provided adequate stop-loss mechanisms are in place. Given the current price and RSI behavior, a revised overbought strategy may warrant testing in the near term.