Market Overview for XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) – 2025-09-05

• XRPJPY opened at 418.36, reached a high of 423.08, and closed at 420.73 within 24 hours.
• A bearish divergence appears in the late session as price peaks but turnover declines.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with a high-low range of 6.14 Yen on increased volume.
• RSI showed overbought conditions in the afternoon, followed by a pullback into neutral territory.

XRPJPY opened at 418.36 on 2025-09-04 12:00 ET, reached a 24-hour high of 423.08, and closed at 420.73 by 2025-09-05 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 903,158.4 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥378,137,150. Price action showed multiple consolidation attempts and sharp countertrend swings, suggesting uneven conviction between buyers and sellers.

Structure & Formations

Key support was identified at the 414.48–415.28 range, tested twice in the late evening, while resistance emerged at 419.36–420.13 as the price struggled to retest previous highs. A morning bearish engulfing pattern at 06:00 ET suggested short-term bearish bias, which was partially confirmed by a doji at 03:15 ET and an evening shooting star at 23:45 ET. These patterns suggest potential exhaustion of bullish momentum and a possible reversal into consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) crossed below the 50-period MA in the late evening, forming a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA at 418.55 acted as a pivot, with price bouncing off it in the early morning before resuming the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 419.0 and 200-period MA at 416.0 formed a bearish bias, with price currently hovering above the 100-period MA at 417.8.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after a mid-morning sell-off, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI peaked at 69.2 during the afternoon, indicating overbought conditions, and subsequently dropped to 50.8 by close, aligning with a retracement. Overbought levels did not trigger a strong reversal, suggesting bearish bias remains intact for now.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-day as the bands widened from a 1.4 range to a 2.3 range by 08:00 ET. Price touched the upper band during the morning and the lower band in the early evening, indicating an active range-bound session. The current price of 420.73 sits near the upper band, signaling potential overbought pressure and a possible pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the late morning and evening, with the highest turnover at 07:30 ET (¥22,113,777) and 03:15 ET (¥23,433,718). Notably, the 07:45–08:00 ET time frame saw a sharp price increase with lower volume, hinting at a potential divergence. While volume and price moved in tandem during key breakout attempts, the bearish divergence in the final hour suggests caution about continued bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 414.48–423.08 swing, key levels were 418.1 (38.2%), 419.8 (50%), and 421.1 (61.8%). Price stalled near the 50% and 61.8% levels before retreating, indicating a lack of follow-through. Daily retracements on the 412.76–423.08 swing showed support at 417.4 (38.2%) and 415.6 (61.8%), both of which were tested but not decisively broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout-follow system that triggers on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (421.1) with confirmation by an RSI above 55 and a bullish MACD crossover. Given the observed pullback after the 07:30 ET high, a retest of this level with increased volume would provide a high-probability entry for a short-term long position. Stop-loss placement could be set below the 50% level at 419.8, with a target near 422.44 as the most recent high.