Market Overview: XRP/USDT 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum on 2025-11-11

• XRP/USDT declines 1.2% over 24 hours, closing at $2.4315 after a 1.5% sell-off in the final 6 hours.
• Volatility expanded, with a 2.4% high-low swing, but volume remained mixed with no sharp divergences.
• MACD turned negative and RSI hit 42, suggesting short-term oversold conditions and potential for a small bounce.

XRP/USDT opened at $2.5205 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.5638, a low of $2.4315, and closed at $2.4315 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Total volume was 93,923,994.8 and turnover came to $234.8 million. Price action shows a bearish bias with late-day selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of XRP/USDT over the past 24 hours reveals key support and resistance levels within a volatile range. A notable bearish breakdown occurred around $2.50 after a failed attempt to break above the $2.5638 high. A doji formed at $2.5577–$2.5562, indicating indecision near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bullish swing. The 2.47–2.50 range acted as a temporary support zone, where a bullish engulfing pattern briefly emerged but failed to hold amid increased bearish volume.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bearish alignment, with the 20-line dipping below the 50-line late in the session. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA, suggesting a still-long-term bullish trend. Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with the price closing near the lower band at 2.4315, indicating potential for a short-term bounce but no strong reversal signal.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative after a bullish crossover earlier in the session, ending in a bearish divergence with price. A bearish histogram developed, suggesting weakening momentum. RSI dipped to 42 by the close, signaling a possible oversold condition, but without a clear breakout above the 50-line, a bounce remains uncertain. The RSI did not confirm any strong overbought levels during the session, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Volume and Turnover

Turnover and volume were mixed throughout the session, with sharp increases noted around the $2.56–2.57 highs and the $2.50–2.45 lows. A divergence between price and volume was evident during the late sell-off: prices fell sharply while volume remained moderate, suggesting possible exhaustion or lack of conviction in the bearish move. The total notional turnover of $234.8 million was in line with average levels for XRP, indicating no extreme accumulation or distribution.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci to the 24-hour swing (high 2.5638 to low 2.4315), key retracement levels include 61.8% at 2.490 and 38.2% at 2.523. Price bounced off the 61.8% level once but failed to hold it, with a subsequent breakdown suggesting a deeper retest of 2.445–2.455 support is likely. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high of 2.5808 to the low of 2.4315 sits at 2.501, which appears to have been rejected as bearish volume increased.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD-Golden-Cross strategy was tested on XRP/USDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11, yielding a total return of 32.2% and an annualised 20.2%. While the strategy captured several strong upswings with a best single-trade gain of 106%, it also endured deep drawdowns, including a -74.6% max loss, limiting overall risk-adjusted returns. With an average holding period of 30 days and no stops or profit targets, the Sharpe ratio of 0.35 reflects the strategy’s moderate effectiveness in volatile crypto conditions. For future testing, tighter stops or profit targets may help refine risk exposure and reduce interim drawdowns.