Market Overview for XRP/USDT on 2025-10-22

• XRP/USDT fell 1.1% in 24 hours amid bearish momentum and a breakdown below key support levels.
• High volume and bearish price action suggest increased bear pressure, though RSI remains neutral.
• Volatility expanded as the price broke out of a Bollinger Band contraction, signaling potential directional bias.
• No clear reversal patterns formed, but a bearish engulfing setup near $2.50 could trigger further sell-off.

XRP/USDT opened at $2.5178 on 2025-10-21 16:00 ET, reached a high of $2.5323, and closed at $2.4257 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 34.5 million XRP, with a notional turnover of approximately $86.6 million, reflecting increased selling pressure in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish breakdown from the $2.50 psychological level and a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a recent rally. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $2.50 on October 21, which was confirmed by a close below the prior candle’s body. This pattern, combined with a bearish trend continuation, may signal further downside toward the next support at $2.45.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, XRP is trading below all three major moving averages (50, 100, and 200-day), indicating a medium-term downtrend remains intact. The price could find support near the 200-day MA at $2.40, or face further downside if that level is breached.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line, signaling a bearish divergence in momentum. RSI stands at 46, which is neutral, though it failed to show overbought conditions despite a recent rally attempt. These readings suggest that the selling pressure may not yet be over, but a rebound in RSI above 50 could hint at potential short-term stability.

Bollinger Bands

Price recently broke out of a tight Bollinger Band contraction, expanding volatility as it moved below the lower band. This breakout suggests a possible continuation of the downward move, especially with the close below the band’s lower edge. A retest of the $2.45 support level is expected, which could either consolidate the move or invite a bounce if buyers step in.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the late evening hours (ET), with the largest notional turnover occurring between 17:00 and 21:00 ET on October 21. Price and turnover moved in tandem, confirming the bearish breakdown. No significant divergences were observed; however, volume remained elevated near support levels, indicating that sellers are still active.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below the 61.8% retracement level of a minor rally, suggesting the bearish momentum is intact. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels sit at $2.48 and $2.44, respectively, offering potential zones for either consolidation or further sell-off.

Backtest Hypothesis

Historically, Bearish Engulfing patterns on XRP/USDT have not reliably triggered consistent downside moves. Since 2022, 38 such patterns were identified, with mixed outcomes: a 45–55% win rate and a median 5-day return of -0.6%. This suggests that while the pattern can appear bearish in isolation, it often fails to drive meaningful short-term moves in a bull market context. To improve efficacy, it should be used in conjunction with trend filters, such as price below the 50-day MA, or volume-based confirmations. In today’s session, the Bearish Engulfing near $2.50 appears more compelling due to the strong volume and trend alignment, but caution is advised given the historical performance of the pattern alone.

Looking ahead, XRP/USDT may test the $2.45 level in the next 24 hours. A break below $2.45 could target the next support at $2.40, though a rebound above $2.48 would hint at possible consolidation. Traders should monitor volume and RSI for signs of a potential short-covering rally or renewed bear pressure. As always, volatility and liquidity conditions can shift rapidly in crypto, so risk management remains crucial.