Market Overview for XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT) on 2025-10-07

• XRP/USDT dropped to 2.88 USD in 24 hours, hitting a key support level.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions.
• Volume spiked during the sharp decline, signaling heightened bearish pressure.
• Price broke below a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting further downside risk.
• Volatility expanded as price moved outside Bollinger Bands, hinting at a directional breakout.

XRP/USDT opened at $3.0336 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $3.0506, and a low of $2.85 before closing at $2.8846 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 33.3 million XRP, with notional turnover reaching $95.5 million. Price action reflects a bearish bias with a breakdown of key support.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 3.05–3.03 level, followed by a long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart. The structure indicates strong selling pressure, particularly after 20:00 ET, when price moved decisively below the 3.03–3.04 consolidation range. A significant bearish trendline was broken, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 2.88. A potential support level may emerge near 2.85–2.86, where a small bullish reversal could occur.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are bearishly aligned below the price, confirming downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at 3.01, while the 100-period and 200-period SMAs are higher, reinforcing a bearish bias. The short-term moving average crossover (20 < 50) and the longer-term divergences all suggest continued bearish pressure unless price breaks above 2.99.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning, with the histogram expanding negatively during the sharp decline. RSI dropped below 30, reaching 28, a clear oversold level. However, this reading may indicate a potential bounce, especially if volume increases with buying interest. The combination of weak momentum and bearish divergence suggests further downside is likely unless a sharp reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price moved outside the lower Bollinger Band, especially between 20:00 and 23:00 ET. This expansion often precedes strong directional moves. Price has now settled near the lower band at 2.88, with the band width at 0.025. A retest of the upper band at 2.95 could be expected in the event of a rebound, but bearish control is expected to remain dominant unless there is a sudden influx of bullish volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 20:00–22:00 ET window, with 5.2 million XRP traded during the 3.05–2.88 decline. Notional turnover spiked to $17 million in that period, reinforcing the bearish breakout. A divergence is visible between price and volume in the early morning hours, where price dipped but volume remained low, hinting at exhaustion in the short-term bears.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 3.05–2.88 decline aligns with a 61.8% retracement level at 2.88, now acting as support. A break below that level could target 2.85–2.86, which would align with the 78.6% retracement. On the daily chart, a key Fibonacci level at 2.90–2.92 may act as a psychological barrier. A retest of 2.99–3.01 could occur, but bearish momentum remains strong.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position upon a bearish engulfing pattern formation below a key Fibonacci level, confirmed by a bearish divergence in the RSI and a volume spike. Stop-loss is placed above the 50-period SMA, and the initial take-profit is set at 61.8% of the retracement level. This setup was validated on October 7, as price broke the 2.88 level with strong volume and confirmed RSI divergence, offering a high-probability short trade for the next 24 hours.