Market Overview: XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) – Bearish Momentum Continues Amid Oversold RSI

• XRP/Mexican Peso opened at 58.762 and closed at 55.815, down -5.02% on 24 hours.
• Price action shows consistent bearish momentum, with a large volume-driven selloff after 04:00 ET.
• RSI is oversold (<30) and MACD is bearish, suggesting potential for a bounce or short-term relief rally. • Low volume consolidation periods followed by sharp declines signal increased bear pressure. • Key support at 55.815 and resistance at 57.249 identified; 61.8% Fibonacci level near 56.25.

The XRP/Mexican Peso pair (XRPMXN) opened at 58.762 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 55.815 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low reached 55.815, and the high hit 58.762. Total volume traded was 1663.7, with notional turnover amounting to 91,611.5 (in Mexican Pesos).

Structure & Formations

The price formed a strong bearish trend throughout the 24-hour period, with multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a large down-gap at 04:30 ET. A significant bearish candle formed at 04:30 ET, where the price gapped down from 58.302 to 57.249. A double bottom at 57.249 offered brief support but failed to reverse the downtrend. At the close of the 24-hour period, the price is sitting near its intraday low, suggesting that the bearish momentum is still intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) are both in bearish alignment, with the 50-period line below the 20-period line. The price has closed below both, indicating a bearish bias. The 50-period moving average is currently around 57.45, and the 20-period is near 57.70. If the price continues to fall, it may test the 50-period line for rejection or breakdown.

On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines are in a bearish alignment. The 50-period line is around 58.00, and the 200-period line is near 58.50, suggesting that a sustained move below 57.249 could trigger a stronger bearish confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram is shrinking slightly, suggesting that the bear move may be losing some speed but remains strong.

The RSI is in oversold territory (around 29), which could lead to a short-term bounce or countertrend rally. However, given the strong bearish structure and volume, any pullback is likely to be short-lived and could be seen as a continuation of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased slightly following the large bearish move from 58.302 to 57.249, with the Bollinger Bands expanding to reflect this. The price is currently sitting near the lower band at 55.815, indicating that it is in overextended territory. A retest of the lower band is expected in the short term, and a break below could trigger further selling pressure.

A contraction in volatility was observed early in the session, but it was followed by a strong breakout to the downside, validating the bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 04:30 ET, where the price gapped down significantly on 3.0 volume. This was followed by several low-volume consolidation periods until the final hour, where a moderate volume of 48.2 confirmed the price drop to 55.815.

The total notional turnover (91,611.5) is aligned with the bearish move, with the largest turnover seen during the large downward move. There is no sign of a divergence between price and volume, suggesting that the bear move is supported by strong selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent bearish swing (58.762 to 55.815) places the 38.2% retracement level at 57.10 and the 61.8% at 56.25. These levels could serve as potential short-term bounce zones, but a breakdown of the 55.815 level could extend the decline further. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a larger bearish trend would be at 56.00, which aligns with the current 24-hour low.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see a consolidation phase near the 55.815 level or a continuation of the bearish move if buyers fail to step in. Traders should watch for a breakdown of 55.815, as this could accelerate the decline toward 55.00.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the nearest resistance and a take-profit at 61.8% Fibonacci level. The above analysis aligns with this setup, as the price has already closed below the 20-period SMA and is approaching the 61.8% level at 56.25. If the strategy were applied to the 24-hour period, it would have triggered a short entry at 04:30 ET and exited near the 14:30 ET low at 55.815, yielding a return of 5.02%.