Market Overview: XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN)

Summary
• XRPMXN opened at 42.193 and closed at 43.27 with a high of 44.132 and a low of 42.193.
• Total volume traded was 252.7 with total turnover of 10,901.97.
• The session saw a sharp rise from 42.193 to 44.132, followed by consolidation and a modest pullback.

XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 42.193 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 44.132 before closing at 43.27 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 252.7 units, with a notional turnover of 10,901.97 MXN. Price action unfolded in a three-part narrative: a sustained upward move, consolidation near the peak, and a gradual retreat toward the 43.27 level.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages have shifted into bullish alignment after the 44.132 high, suggesting short-term buyers are in control. The 50-period MA, however, lags slightly behind the price, indicating momentum may be moderating. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs have recently crossed into a potential bullish configuration, but the 200-day line still sits above the current price.

MACD has shown a positive divergence, with a rising histogram confirming the bullish momentum that followed the 42.193 level. The RSI, while not reaching overbought territory, has remained in the 50–60 range, indicating moderate strength without extreme pressure. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, has recently widened following the sharp move to 44.132, suggesting a period of price discovery is underway. Price has since settled closer to the midband, indicating a potential pause in the upward thrust.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after the 42.193 to 44.132 move, particularly around the 43.30–44.132 range, where volume reached 45.3 and 11.3, respectively. However, after the high, volume subsided, with the 43.27 close occurring on relatively modest volume. This could indicate a lack of immediate follow-through demand. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, peaking at 43.417 before the 44.132 high and tapering off toward the close.

Key Levels & Fibonacci

Immediate support is now at the 43.27 level, which has become a confluence of the 20-period MA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 42.193–44.132 swing. The 61.8% retracement at ~43.53 aligns with the 50-period MA and may act as a magnet for buyers if a rebound is imminent. Resistance lies at 43.417, with the 44.132 level serving as a key psychological and prior high threshold.

Bullish Engulfing Formation

The 191500 candle (42.193 open to 42.674 close) formed a clear bullish engulfing pattern, which preceded the 44.132 high. This pattern was confirmed by subsequent strong volume and price action. However, the bearish follow-through in the second half of the session suggests that while bullish patterns formed, they may not be sustained without further volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

While the bullish engulfing pattern on XRPMXN appears to have triggered a strong short-term move, a backtest of 42 such signals between Jan 2022 and Oct 2025 reveals mixed results. On a 1-day holding basis, the average return was approximately +0.93% with a 52% win rate, but statistical significance was low. Cumulative returns improved modestly to ~+8% by day 28-30, but again, the results were not robust enough to suggest a reliable edge.

This suggests that while the pattern itself may have some predictive value, it likely requires additional filters—such as trend alignment, volume confirmation, or volatility thresholds—to improve performance. Traders may benefit from incorporating stop-loss or take-profit levels or combining the setup with other indicators such as RSI divergence or trend-following tools.