Market Overview: XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) – 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum

Summary
• Price opened at 42.0 and closed at 41.681 after a 24-hour session.
• Key support levels appeared at 41.923 and 41.886, with a breakdown below 42.0.
• Volume was uneven, with the majority of turnover concentrated near the 19:30, 19:45, and 03:45 ET timeframes.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed around 19:30–20:00 ET, followed by a sharp drop after 03:45 ET.
• Volatility expanded during the early hours, pushing price to a new intra-day low.

The XRP/Mexican Peso pair (XRPMXN) opened at 42.0 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET and closed at 41.681 at 12:00 ET the following day. During the 24-hour period, the pair hit a high of 42.259 and a low of 41.681. Total volume amounted to approximately 1,669.2 (units), while notional turnover reached 69,132. The price trajectory revealed a bearish bias after a brief rebound above 42.0 late in the session.

A key 15-minute candlestick structure began forming after 19:30 ET, where price opened at 41.923 and closed at 41.886 following a small bearish reversal. This was followed by a larger bearish candle at 19:45 ET, breaking below 41.900 with a high of 41.839 and a close at the same level. These formations indicated a potential short-term breakdown and loss of bullish momentum. A larger engulfing bearish pattern developed around 03:45 ET, as price fell from 42.135 to 41.681 on a single candle, signaling a strong shift in sentiment.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart converged near the 42.0 level, indicating a potential equilibrium point for the pair. Price remained below both lines during most of the session, which may suggest short-term bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages may be positioned closer to the 42.0–42.10 zone, suggesting the pair could retest this area for support or rejection in the coming days.

MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the histogram shrinking in magnitude after the 20:00 ET bounce. RSI fell into oversold territory after 04:00 ET, dipping below 30 and signaling potential exhaustion in the downward move. Bollinger Bands widened during the price drop, with the close at 41.681 sitting near the lower band, a potential indication of extreme bearish momentum. Volume spiked during the key bearish reversal and breakdown candles, confirming the downward move, while later candles saw minimal turnover, suggesting a possible pause in selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
A recent RSI-Oversold 3-Day Hold strategy applied to XRPMXN over the period from January 2022 to 9 November 2025 showed a total return of 56.4% with an annualized return of 27.9%. The strategy involved entering long positions when RSI(14) crossed below a certain threshold, then holding for up to three trading days or exiting earlier if stopped out. The max draw-down was 25.8%, and the Sharpe ratio of 0.74 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns. The backtest used daily close prices for entry/exit, with no stop-loss or take-profit constraints. Performance metrics, equity curves, and trade lists are available for deeper analysis. Investors may want to consider adjusting the RSI period or incorporating additional risk controls to refine the strategy for current market conditions.