Market Overview for XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) – 2025-10-11

• XRP/Mexican Peso opened at 50.883 and closed at 45.556 with a low of 9.904 and high of 54.0.
• Price experienced a sharp drop post 19:30 ET, breaching key support levels and closing in oversold territory.
• Volume spiked during the 21:30–22:30 ET window, confirming a bearish reversal and trend continuation.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the session, indicating increased volatility.
• RSI approached oversold levels near the 44.8–44.457 consolidation phase, suggesting potential rebound.

XRP/Mexican Peso opened at 50.883 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 45.556 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 54.0 and a low of 9.904 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 23,603.3 XRP, and the notional turnover totaled approximately 949,821 MXN.

The price formed a clear bearish trend after breaking through critical support levels around 50.0 and 48.0 during the 21:30–22:15 ET period. A large bearish candle (19:30–19:45 ET) opened at 50.0 and closed at 48.0 with a volume of 164.0 XRP. This was followed by a further drop to 42.199 (21:15–21:30 ET) and a sharp rebound at 51.119 during the 21:30–21:45 ET window. A strong bearish continuation was seen from 22:00–22:30 ET, with a massive volume of 7,883.2 XRP.

Structure & Formations

Price appears to have formed a bearish breakdown pattern from a key consolidation range between 48.0 and 50.0. A significant bearish engulfing candle (21:30–21:45 ET) confirmed the breakdown, with the price dropping from 51.119 to 42.701. A doji formed at 22:30–22:45 ET, suggesting some internal consolidation. The price then continued to consolidate between 44.457 and 45.556, with a long upper wick at 00:00–00:15 ET (44.8 to 44.457) indicating bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have moved lower, reflecting the ongoing bearish trend. The 50-period moving average crossed below the 20-period MA during the 21:30–22:00 ET period, forming a death cross. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) also show bearish alignment, with the price closing below all three on the day.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 21:45–22:00 ET, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The histogram continued to expand into negative territory during the 22:00–22:30 ET window. RSI dropped from over 60 to below 30 by the 22:30–23:00 ET period, indicating oversold conditions and suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened dramatically during the 21:30–22:30 ET period, reflecting heightened volatility during the sharp decline. Price closed near the lower band at 45.556, confirming bearish bias. A retest of the middle band (~48.0) could be a critical point for a potential reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 21:30–22:30 ET window, with the largest trade (7,883.2 XRP) contributing to the sharp drop to 43.662. Notional turnover spiked during the same period, confirming bearish sentiment. However, volume declined after 02:30 ET, suggesting reduced selling pressure and potential for a short-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 21:30–22:30 ET decline, key levels at 61.8% (~45.8) and 38.2% (~46.5) appear to align with resistance levels on the 15-minute chart. The price is currently near the 61.8% level and may find support or retest these levels in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and death cross on the 20/50 MA, a backtesting strategy could be built around shorting on a confirmed breakdown below 45.556, with a stop-loss placed above the 46.348 level. A take-profit target could be placed at 44.0, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the RSI oversold condition. This approach leverages the confluence of price action, volume confirmation, and momentum indicators.