Market Overview: XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) on 2025-10-05

• XRP/Mexican Peso traded in a narrow range for most of the day before a late surge to a high of 56.146.
• Momentum picked up in late ET hours with a bullish breakout above key resistance levels.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the final 4 hours of the 24-hour window.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions near 70, suggesting a potential pause in upward momentum.
• Volume spiked during the late ET rally, confirming strength in the move toward 56.146.

XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 54.369 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 55.355 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 56.469, and the low was 54.369. Total volume amounted to 254.6 units, and the notional turnover was approximately 13,674.15 MXN.

The market structure showed a clear consolidation phase throughout the early part of the day before a bullish breakout initiated around 05:00 ET with a strong candle forming from 54.806 to 55.94. This breakout was followed by a short consolidation and another strong bullish reversal at 08:15 ET, forming a candle from 56.031 to 56.469. These formations suggest accumulation and potential continuation of the upward trend. A bearish reversal occurred at 11:00 ET, with a candle opening at 56.469 and closing at 55.411, indicating profit-taking. This candle may represent a potential exhaustion pattern.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels can be identified at 54.369, 55.355, and 55.411, with 54.369 acting as a strong baseline. Resistance levels include 56.469 and 56.146. The formation around 05:00 ET and 08:15 ET resembles a bullish engulfing pattern, while the 11:00 ET candle appears as a bearish reversal. A doji-like pattern around 00:15 ET suggests indecision at the early stage of the rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, both rising through the day. This convergence indicates strong momentum and potential continuation of the upward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is slightly below the 200-period MA, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish trend. The price closed above the 50-period MA, which supports a continuation of the bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in bullish territory throughout the day, with the histogram expanding during the final 4 hours as momentum increased. RSI moved into overbought territory near 70 during the last 3 hours of the session, suggesting a potential pause or pullback. However, the sustained volume during this period may indicate strong conviction in the upward trend. A divergence between RSI and price action was not observed, suggesting confirmation of the move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 4 hours of the 24-hour window, pushing the price to the upper Bollinger Band by the end of the session. This expansion indicates increased uncertainty and potential for either continuation or reversal. The price spent a considerable amount of time near the upper band, suggesting a strong bullish bias but also a potential for consolidation in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased dramatically during the final 4 hours of the session, with a large spike at 08:15 ET and 11:00 ET, confirming the strength of the price move. Turnover also spiked during the final 4 hours, aligning with the volume pattern. A positive correlation between volume and price movement suggests strong conviction in the upward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key swing from 54.369 to 56.469, the 38.2% retracement is at 55.69 and the 61.8% retracement is at 55.20. The price closed near the 61.8% level at 55.355, suggesting potential support for the next 24 hours. A break above 56.469 could target the next Fibonacci extension levels, while a pullback to 54.369 could test the 100% retracement as key support.

Looking ahead, the market may consolidate near 55.355–55.411 before attempting a new high. Investors should monitor for a potential pullback or continuation of the bullish trend. A break above 56.469 could signal further gains, but a failure to maintain above 55.355 could trigger a retest of key support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when the price breaks above the 15-minute 20-period moving average and closes above it with a volume spike exceeding 20% of the 24-hour average. This would align with the 05:00 ET and 08:15 ET candles, both of which met the criteria. A stop-loss is placed at the 20-period MA, and a take-profit target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 55.20. Given the alignment of the strategy with the observed technical indicators and price action, this approach appears to be well-suited to the current market conditions.