Market Overview: xMoney/USDC (UTKUSDC) on 2025-10-31

• xMoney/USDC traded in a 0.01734–0.01846 range, ending near 0.01826 after a sharp intraday rebound.
• Volatility spiked midday with a 5.1% swing from 0.01739 to 0.01819 before consolidation.
• Volume surged to 75,650 on the long up-move, yet turnover failed to confirm bullish momentum.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.01753–0.01775, suggesting short-term reversal potential.
• RSI overbought at 75+ for part of the day but retreated toward neutral levels by close.

At 12:00 ET–1, xMoney/USDC opened at 0.01781, reached a high of 0.01846, and closed the 24-hour period at 0.01826 after a late rebound. The pair traded as low as 0.01734 and recorded a total trading volume of 171,074 units. Turnover for the period was approximately $3,071,000, with the largest intraday rally occurring between 04:45 and 05:00 ET when price surged from 0.01814 to 0.01846.

The structure of the 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a complex and volatile session. A key support level emerged around 0.01734, holding the price for three consecutive intervals before a sharp breakaway. Above, resistance appears at 0.01792, 0.01808, and 0.01818—each tested and broken at least once. The most notable candlestick pattern observed is a bullish engulfing formation forming between 21:30 and 22:00 ET, where a bearish close at 0.01751 was followed by a bullish engulfing candle closing at 0.01775. This pattern suggests a potential short-term reversal in the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands reflected heightened volatility during the early and late parts of the session, with the bands expanding from 0.01746–0.01772 to as wide as 0.01715–0.01753. Price frequently bounced off the upper and lower bands, indicating a possible exhaustion in directional momentum. Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed the 20-period at ~0.0178 and the 50-period at ~0.01792, with the price closing slightly above the 50SMA, signaling a potential shift in favor of the bulls.

RSI peaked at ~77 during the 04:45–05:00 ET rally, indicating overbought conditions, and later retracted toward 55 by the close. This decline suggests a loss of upward momentum. MACD remained positive but with diminishing histogram bars, pointing to weakening bullish energy. Fibonacci retracements applied to the 0.01734–0.01846 move identified the 61.8% level at ~0.01821, which the price approached but failed to hold, suggesting that this may be a critical level to watch in the coming 24 hours.

The forward-looking view for the next 24 hours appears mixed, with a constructive bias emerging if 0.01818 holds as support and the 0.01826–0.01831 range can be sustained. However, a breakdown below 0.01805 could reignite bearish sentiment and push price toward 0.01779–0.01794. Investors should remain cautious of potential divergence between price and volume, particularly during extended rallies.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “Bullish Engulfing – 5-Day Hold” strategy, as described, applies a pattern-based approach using close prices and a fixed 5-day holding period. For xMoney/USDC, the most recent bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart (21:30–22:00 ET) would have triggered a long entry at 0.01751 with a target exit at 0.01826–0.01831 within 5 trading days. The strategy assumes no additional risk management beyond time-based exits, relying on price action alone to deliver returns. The intraday reversal observed here aligns with the backtest logic, though the effectiveness would depend on the broader context of volatility, volume, and external market conditions. Historical results from 2022-2025 indicate that similar setups could yield positive returns in 54% of cases, but with a maximum drawdown of 8.6% in adverse scenarios.