Market Overview: xMoney/USDC (UTKUSDC) on 2025-10-07

• Price declined from 0.02869 to 0.0275 after a bullish open on 2025-10-07.
• Strong volume spikes occurred at key turning points, indicating possible institutional activity.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level appears to have acted as a temporary floor.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier but is now in oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded following the sharp drop post-noon ET, suggesting possible range breakdown.

The xMoney/USDC pair (UTKUSDC) opened at 0.02854 on 2025-10-06 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 0.02869 before closing at 0.0275 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,037,596.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $29,155.33 (based on weighted averages of the data). Price formed multiple bearish patterns, including a dark cloud cover and a large bearish body on the 15-minute chart, indicating growing seller momentum.

In the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged from the price action late in the session, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line as part of a bearish death cross formation. This occurred in tandem with a sharp drop from 0.02869 to 0.0275 within a 90-minute window, signaling a breakdown of prior support. Bollinger Bands expanded during the decline, with price moving below the lower band, reinforcing the notion of heightened bearish volatility.

The RSI indicator entered oversold territory following the sharp sell-off, dropping to the low 20s, while the MACD histogram turned negative and the signal line crossed below the MACD line. These momentum indicators confirm a strong bearish bias. A Fibonacci retracement analysis showed that the price hit a 61.8% level at approximately 0.0278 before continuing the decline. The pair may find a potential near-term support at the 38.2% level (0.0283), but a break below the 0.0275 level could open the door to further testing of earlier lows.

The backtesting strategy described involves a breakout-based approach using Fibonacci retracement levels in conjunction with volume confirmation. The strategy appears to align with the observed price behavior during the sharp drop from 0.02869 to 0.0275, where a confirmed breakdown occurred alongside a large volume spike. A potential application of the strategy would be to enter short positions when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a confirmed volume spike, as seen in the 15-minute data at 14:45 ET. Stops can be placed above the 78.6% level, with the 38.2% level as a potential target.