Market Overview for xMoney/USDC (UTKUSDC) – 2025-09-24

• xMoney/USDC (UTKUSDC) edged higher over 24 hours, with a bearish close near the session low after a sharp late reversal.
• Volatility increased mid-session, with a 1.47% swing in the last 4.5 hours, suggesting shifting market sentiment.
• Volume spiked near 21:30 ET and 16:00 ET, confirming short-term buying and selling pressure.
• RSI entered overbought territory twice, while MACD remained near zero, signaling mixed momentum.
• A potential support level formed around $0.02629, tested twice with limited breakdown.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23, the pair opened at $0.0263, hit a high of $0.0269 during the session, and closed at $0.02648 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 758,928.0, with notional turnover driven by several sharp intraday swings. The price appears to have formed a potential bullish base near $0.02629, but bearish pressure reemerged in the final hours.

Key support levels are forming around $0.02629 and $0.02603, with a shallow bearish flag pattern visible between 19:00 and 10:30 ET. Resistance is currently at $0.0265 to $0.0269, with a long upper wick on the 14:00 candle suggesting rejection at that level. A doji formed near $0.02635 at 04:30, followed by a sharp move down to $0.02604, indicating potential exhaustion in the short-term trend.

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The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in early morning, forming a bullish crossover before diverging again as bearish momentum returned. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in early morning, expanding as volatility increased after 18:00. The price tested the lower band multiple times before finding temporary stability. RSI fluctuated between 55 and 70, with two overbought readings above 65, while MACD remained near zero with no strong divergence.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the 14:00 high to the 04:30 low suggest possible support at 38.2% ($0.02638) and 61.8% ($0.02616), aligning with observed price action. However, volume diverged during the final push to $0.02648, with relatively low turnover despite a price increase, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.

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Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI above 50 and a confirmed breakout of the upper Bollinger Band. Stop-loss is placed below the most recent Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, with a take-profit target at the nearest resistance (e.g., $0.0265 to $0.0269). Given the recent price action and indicator signals, the strategy would have triggered an entry near $0.0263 at 06:15 ET, with the stop-loss activated after the price tested $0.02612. However, the strategy's performance may vary in high-volatility environments where false breakouts are common.