Market Overview for XLMJPY on 2025-09-25

• XLMJPY declined 3.8% over the last 24 hours, closing near support at 53.31.
• Volatility expanded early, but volume dipped sharply after 04:00 ET, signaling weakening momentum.
• RSI (14) showed overbought levels in midday, followed by a sharp decline into oversold territory by 11:00 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 56.52–56.26, and price failed to reclaim key resistance at 56.74.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 18:00 ET, indicating a breakout attempt that ultimately failed.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 56.09 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 53.33 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 56.77 and a low of 53.31. Total volume amounted to 539,058.2 units, with notional turnover reaching 29,158,556.7 JPY over the 24-hour window. The pair experienced a bearish trend, breaking below key support at 55.6.

Structure & Formations

XLMJPY displayed a bearish bias throughout the session, forming a key bearish engulfing candle between 17:30 and 17:45 ET at 56.26–56.52, a strong reversal signal. The price then consolidated in a descending channel, failing to recover above 56.74, a prior resistance level. A doji formed around 02:00 ET at 55.0–55.06, signaling indecision among buyers. The 53.31–53.33 range marked a potential short-term support zone, which was tested twice during the late hours of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both sloped downward, confirming the bearish trend. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line earlier in the session, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period averages were in a descending sequence, suggesting further bearish momentum could persist.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover mid-session, with the histogram declining from positive to negative territory. The RSI (14) peaked near overbought levels around 01:00 ET but then rapidly fell into oversold territory by 11:00 ET, suggesting exhaustion among sellers. The divergence between price and RSI hinted at a potential bounce, but it was not confirmed by volume or structure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 18:00 ET as volatility increased during a breakout attempt. The price briefly tested the upper band before retreating, confirming the bearish bias. Later in the session, the bands contracted, indicating a period of consolidation. The closing price of 53.33 fell near the lower band, highlighting oversold conditions and the risk of a rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively high during the early part of the session, especially between 17:00 and 20:00 ET, when the price dropped from 56.77 to 56.32. However, volume decreased significantly after 04:00 ET, even as the price continued to fall, suggesting momentum may be waning. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, peaking at midday before tapering off. The divergence between price and volume during the latter part of the session raises questions about the sustainability of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were drawn from the recent swing high of 56.77 to the swing low of 53.31. The 38.2% retracement level at 55.05 and the 61.8% level at 54.54 were both tested during the session, with the 54.54 level acting as a minor resistance. The price closed below both levels, indicating that the correction has not yet reached a point of significant support. Over the next 24 hours, a retest of the 54.54 level could confirm whether the bearish trend is intact or if a short-term bounce is forming.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the failure to reclaim 56.74, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a close below 54.54, with a target at 53.00 (a 1.5% move) and a stop-loss above 56.00. This strategy would aim to exploit the continuation of the descending trend, using Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands as dynamic stop-loss and target levels. Historical data from similar bearish setups would need to be analyzed to refine entry timing and improve risk-adjusted returns.