Market Overview for Worldcoin/Tether (WLDUSDT) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price dipped from 0.81 to 0.746, closing at 0.786 after a sharp sell-off in early trading.
• Turnover spiked to $1.95M in the session’s lowest bar, with volume concentrated in bearish 15-minute candles.
• RSI approached oversold territory, but failed to trigger a sustained rebound despite multiple attempts.

Worldcoin/Tether (WLDUSDT) opened at 0.802 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.81, a low of 0.746, and closed at 0.786 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 13,058,397.6 units, with a total notional turnover of $10,593,848. Price action suggests a bearish consolidation phase following a sharp correction in early trading.

Structure and formations over the 24-hour period show a bearish breakdown from key support at 0.790, followed by a rejection at 0.780. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.782–0.779 (18:45–19:00 ET), and a potential bullish reversal at 0.771–0.775 occurred at 03:45–04:00 ET, though the move failed to carry momentum. A doji near 0.782 at 15:00 ET may signal indecision after the selloff.

Moving averages show the 20-period and 50-period lines in a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart, with price closing below both. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day lines appear to form a descending channel, suggesting a continuation of the broader bearish trend. The 200-day line has remained a strong resistance, limiting upward potential.

MACD remained negative for most of the session, with a weak histogram suggesting waning bearish momentum. RSI dipped to 29 in the early morning, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to generate a meaningful bounce, indicating bearish exhaustion may not be enough to reverse the trend. Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the selloff, with price closing near the lower band at 0.771. Volatility has returned to the market as a result of increased trading activity during key price breaks.

Volume and turnover analysis showed a sharp increase during the selloff, particularly between 18:00 and 02:00 ET, when price dropped from 0.802 to 0.746. Notional turnover exceeded $1M during the 15:00–16:00 ET window as bearish pressure accelerated. However, volume failed to confirm any significant rebounds, suggesting buyers may be hesitant to commit at lower levels.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.81 high to the 0.746 low show key levels at 38.2% (0.783) and 61.8% (0.770), which have acted as both support and resistance during the recovery. The 50% retracement at 0.778 has seen repeated rejection, suggesting a possible pivot point for near-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “RSI-Oversold 7-Day Hold” strategy, which triggers trades when RSI drops below 30 and holds for 7 days, has delivered poor performance on WLDUSDT. Over the 2022–2025 period, it returned an annualized -14.6% with a 69% maximum drawdown, indicating that relying solely on RSI may be insufficient given WLD’s tendency to remain oversold during extended downtrends. While occasional rebounds were strong (+44.9% in one trade), the average loss of -1.8% per trade shows inconsistent profitability. Traders may benefit from combining RSI with additional trend filters (e.g., 200-day moving average crossovers) and dynamic exit rules to improve risk-adjusted outcomes.

Looking ahead, the near-term path depends on whether WLDUSDT can hold above 0.770, with a break below that level likely extending the bearish trend. A test of the 0.783–0.785 range may offer a short-term buying opportunity, but risks remain if sellers regain control. Investors should remain cautious as volatility and volume suggest the market is in a phase of retesting and consolidation.