Market Overview for World Liberty Financial USD/Tether (USD1USDT)

Summary
• Price action remained tightly range-bound between 0.9994 and 0.9996 throughout the 24-hour window.
• No significant candlestick patterns emerged, with most bars showing minimal body and indeterminate direction.
• Volume was generally low, peaking at ~200k in the afternoon hours, suggesting limited speculative interest.
• RSI and MACD showed no clear overbought or oversold signals, consistent with low volatility.
• Bollinger Bands remained narrow, confirming subdued price movement and lack of directional momentum.

World Liberty Financial USD/Tether (USD1USDT) opened at 0.9995 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET−1, reached a high of 0.9996, a low of 0.9994, and closed at 0.9994 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 1,192,898, with total turnover reaching approximately $1,191,000. The price action remained confined within a narrow band, reflecting the typical behavior of a stablecoin pegged to the USD.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period displayed a highly constrained range between 0.9994 and 0.9996, with no notable breakout attempts. No decisive candlestick patterns such as engulfing or doji formed, and the majority of candles showed small bodies with indeterminate wicks. The 0.9994 level acted as a key support, holding firm in the afternoon and evening sessions.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained nearly aligned, indicating no short-term directional bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart also showed minimal movement, reinforcing the idea of a range-bound, low-volatility environment. Price remained near the 20/50 SMA, with no clear trend formation observed.

MACD & RSI

Both the MACD and RSI indicators failed to show any overbought or oversold conditions due to the tight range. The MACD line remained near zero with no clear signal above or below, and the histogram showed no significant divergence from the signal line. RSI oscillated between 48 and 54, with no clear breakouts or trend confirmation. These readings are typical for a stablecoin with minimal price deviation.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained tightly within the Bollinger Bands throughout the 24-hour period, with no signs of expansion or contraction in volatility. The bands were compressed, indicating a consolidation phase without any strong directional move. The price stayed near the mid-band, further confirming the range-bound nature of USD1USDT.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally low, with the majority of 15-minute candles recording under 20,000 units. A notable spike in volume occurred in the afternoon, with one candle reaching ~200,000 units, but this did not lead to a corresponding price move. The total 24-hour notional turnover came in at ~$1,191,000, which is in line with expectations for a stablecoin. There were no significant divergences between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.9994 to 0.9996 revealed no significant retracement levels that were tested multiple times. The 61.8% and 38.2% retracement levels fell within the same tight range and did not act as distinct support or resistance. On the daily chart, no major Fibonacci levels had a measurable impact on price behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “MACD Golden-Dead Cross” strategy applied to USD1USDT over the period 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12 yielded a total return of −0.54% and a negative Sharpe ratio of −1.49, confirming the ineffectiveness of the strategy in a low-volatility, stable-coin context. The negative annualised return of −0.79% and max drawdown of −0.57% reflect the challenges of applying trend-following indicators to a pair that rarely deviates from its peg. The strategy struggled to overcome trading frictions and noise caused by the stable-coin’s minimal price movement, reinforcing the conclusion that traditional momentum indicators are ill-suited for this asset class.