Market Overview: World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT) – October 10, 2025

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $0.1809 before retreating sharply, closing at $0.1461 with a massive 15-minute drop.
• Volatility spiked with a $0.06 range and diverged significantly from volume, which remained compressed.
• Momentum collapsed late in the session, pushing RSI into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• A key support level appears at $0.144, with a possible retracement target near $0.1713 if buyers return.
• Extreme price dislocation in the final 15-minute interval may indicate washout or structural sell pressure.

World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT) opened at $0.1746 on October 9 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.1809, then collapsed to a 24-hour low of $0.121 before closing at $0.1461 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 225,621,596.80, with a notional turnover of approximately $33,412,637 (based on volume × average price).

The structure of the 24-hour candlestick pattern is highly volatile, with a massive bearish engulfing candle in the final 15-minute interval, closing near the lower shadow at $0.1461. The price action appears to reflect a sharp capitulation event, with liquidity likely drying up at key psychological levels. A strong support level is forming around $0.144, where the price stabilized briefly before the final drop. Resistance remains evident around $0.175–$0.180, where the asset previously stalled before the selloff. A potential bounce off this support may test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1635, though a breach below $0.144 could extend losses to the 61.8% level at $0.128.

The moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover of the 20- and 50-period lines, confirming the rapid downward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period line is above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. The MACD has flattened into negative territory, with the histogram showing a sharp contraction at the end of the session, consistent with exhaustion. The RSI has dropped below 20, indicating oversold conditions, though this does not guarantee a reversal—more likely, a pause in the selloff before resuming the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, reflecting rising volatility, particularly during the final 15-minute interval. Price has fallen below the lower band, a sign of high volatility and potential short-term continuation of the bearish move. The narrow band contraction earlier in the session may have preceded the breakout, but in this case, the direction was negative rather than bullish.

Backtest Hypothesis: A possible strategy to test would be entering long positions on a retest of the $0.144 support with a stop loss below $0.138 and a target at $0.1713. Alternatively, a short-bias strategy could enter on a break below $0.144, with a target at $0.121 and a stop at $0.150. Given the RSI’s oversold reading and the structural support at $0.144, the former offers a higher probability of success, though the latter could capitalize on continuation of the sharp breakdown if it is structural in nature. Both scenarios should be filtered by volume and turnover to confirm the strength of the move.