Market Overview for World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT)

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• WLFIUSDT opened at $0.1852 and closed at $0.1765 with a 24-hour high of $0.1882 and low of $0.1723.
• The pair formed bearish engulfing and long lower shadow patterns during the early hours, indicating pressure to continue lower.
• Volume spiked during the sharp drop from $0.1850 to $0.1746 between 3:30 and 4:15 ET, signaling strong selling interest.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory around 7:30 ET but failed to trigger a bounce, suggesting bearish momentum remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion following the 4:30 ET breakdown, confirming rising volatility to the downside.

Market Open and Close Summary

World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT) opened at $0.1852 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.1882 and a low of $0.1723 before closing at $0.1765 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 189,494,706.30, while notional turnover was $33,795,336.09. The price action suggests a strong bearish bias driven by elevated selling pressure and key bearish candlestick formations.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:00–19:15 ET and a long lower shadow during the 21:30–21:45 ET candle, both of which are bearish reversal signals. A notable breakdown occurred at $0.1850, forming a short-term support-turned-resistance level. The price tested the $0.1750–$0.1760 range multiple times in the late hours, showing potential for a new support zone to form.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart were bearishly aligned, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line during the 3:30–4:15 ET window, confirming a bearish crossover. Daily MAs (50/100/200) are also aligned with a downward trend, with the price currently below all three, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remained below the signal line from 3:30 ET onward, signaling continued bearish momentum. RSI reached an oversold condition around 7:30 ET (below 30), but no strong rebound followed, which could indicate a deeper bearish trend is forming. This divergence suggests that while the price appears to be overextended to the downside, the market remains bearish, with little sign of a reversal.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded following the breakdown at $0.1850, indicating increased volatility. Price has remained within the lower band for most of the past 6 hours, reinforcing the bearish trend. A period of consolidation between 10:00–11:30 ET saw the bands narrowing slightly, which could precede a breakout or breakdown, likely to the downside given the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 3:30–4:15 ET window as the price fell from $0.1850 to $0.1746, with a notional turnover spike of over $10M in that period. Volume remains elevated during key bearish moves and has been consistent during the consolidation phase, indicating strong participation from sellers. No significant divergence between price and turnover has been observed, suggesting the bearish move is still supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high of $0.1882 and the swing low of $0.1723, the 61.8% level at $0.1784 has been tested multiple times but failed to hold. The 38.2% level at $0.1800 also acted as resistance, reinforcing the bearish scenario. Looking forward, the 50% Fibonacci level at $0.1802 may now act as overhead resistance if the price attempts a near-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a close below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the most recent 61.8% Fibonacci level and a target set at the next 38.2% level. The strategy would aim to capture momentum-driven bearish moves during periods of high volatility. This aligns with the observed price action and technical structure, particularly the breakdown at $0.1850 and the strong bearish momentum following the 3:30 ET move.