Market Overview: World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT) – 24-Hour Movement Analysis

Summary
• Price action showed a sharp drop in the early hours of the morning with a rebound later in the day.
• High volatility seen in the first half of the session, with volume surging during the decline.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce.
• Key support levels tested and retested around the 0.125–0.128 range.
• Momentum appears to be shifting after a large-volume candle in the early morning ET.

World Liberty Financial/Tether (WLFIUSDT) opened at 0.1333 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 0.1195 by 12:00 ET today, with a high of 0.1346 and a low of 0.108. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 213,120,887.2, and notional turnover was $26,397,703.70. The pair experienced a significant decline after 15:30 ET, breaking below critical psychological levels and entering a volatile phase that persisted through the morning session.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed key support and resistance levels throughout the session. A strong bearish reversal pattern appeared at 0.1235, where price failed to hold above after a brief rebound. A large bearish candle during the early morning ET confirmed a breakdown below this level, with a low at 0.108. A doji appeared around 0.122, indicating indecision before a final leg down. The pattern suggests further bearish momentum is likely if the 0.120 level is breached.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart were heavily bearish, with price well below both. The 20-period line crossed below the 50-period line, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was approached but failed to hold, suggesting continued downward pressure. The 200-period MA acted as a long-term resistance, now acting as a floor for further bearish tests.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator showed a bearish divergence with price, particularly in the early morning, as the histogram contracted while price continued to fall. The RSI dropped below 30, hitting an intraday low of 23, indicating overbought conditions have been reversed and oversold territory has been reached. A potential bounce is likely, but without a strong reversal candle, bearish continuation is probable.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked early in the morning session as price broke below the lower Bollinger Band. The bands expanded significantly, with the mid-band acting as resistance. Price continued to trade near the lower band until the final hours, where it appeared to find a temporary floor. A contraction in the bands is anticipated as price stabilizes, possibly leading to a breakout either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the initial breakdown below 0.125, confirming the move lower. The candle at 0.1222 showed the largest notional turnover of the session, indicating a significant distribution event. As price dropped further, volume declined, suggesting selling pressure is waning. A potential reversal could follow a volume pickup on a bullish candle.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1346 to 0.108, the 61.8% level is at 0.1218, which aligns with a key psychological level. Price briefly bounced off this level but failed to hold, suggesting a test of the 38.2% level at 0.1256 next. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the prior swing high to the low at 0.108 is at 0.1196, nearly matching the current level, hinting at a potential short-term bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish action and key support levels being tested, a backtest could be designed to evaluate a strategy that targets short positions on breakouts below key Fibonacci or moving average levels. Such a strategy would align with the technical indicators described earlier, particularly the MACD divergence and RSI oversold conditions. However, confirmation of the exact security to backtest is needed—specifically, which security is considered the proxy for “World Liberty Financial,” as several tickers (e.g., LBTYB.O, HOLD.P) may represent it. Once clarified, a falling-window signal with a 10-day hold period could be tested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 to generate a performance report.